Indo- Nepalese relations reached a nadir following the border blockade by agitating Madhesis in Nepal paralyzing movement of supplies between the nations. The impending diplomatic logjam was broken by Prime Minister Khadge Prasad Sharma Oli’s visit to India in February who rejuvenated bilateral ties. But the unprecedented turn of events in the last fortnight spiraled into a political crisis straining the bilateral relations once again. Situation turned grim with Nepal government apparently cancelling visit of its first women President Bidhya Devi Bhandari to India just 72 hours before her departure. This was immediately followed by reports of Nepal pulling back its envoy to New Delhi Deep Kumar Upadhyay, on charges of colluding with India. Affronted by accusations, MEA cancelled Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Lumbini for Buddha Purnima on May 21st.

Ever since Nepal was hit by a massive earthquake on April 25^th 2015, the Himalayan country seems to have plunged into a deeper abyss. The quake of 7.9 magnitude last year has not only entailed a huge loss of lives but only destroyed property worth of $5 billion (almost 25% of its GDP). Even before the country could recover from the colossal loss of the natural calamity, promulgation of the new constitution in September pushed it into ceaseless travails of the constitutional crisis. Viewed as being highly discriminatory the political parties representing the natives of the southern parts of the country Madhesis, Tharus and Janajatis intensified violent protests for repealing of certain clauses in the constitution.

These groups inhabiting the plains of the Southern part of the country have close cultural, linguistic and traditional relations with India. Madhesis put up a strong fight against the government and intensified the andolan that lasted for 135 long days resulting in blockade of essential supplies, fuel and medicines from India. India is a life line for the land locked Himalayan country and blocking of transit routes created led to shortage of critical supplies and Nepal was pushed into a humanitarian crisis. Nepal held India responsible for the crisis and accused India of emboldening the agitating groups. As a matter of fact, Nepal has to blame its inept government for failing to address the concerns of the people living the plains. On the contrary, Oli have quickly shifted gears and started leaning towards China. He eventually signed a transit agreement with China for supply of fuel through Tibet to Nepal. Despite the agreement supply of fuel from China has been erratic. These overtures of Nepal towards China irked India.

Oli made India his first destination for a foreign visits after holding power (a practice followed by Nepali counterparts barring a single exception of Pushpa Kamal Dahal) to signal his eagerness to nurture Indo-Nepal relations. In a sharp departure from the pro-Indian stance reaffirmed by Oli in his visit to India, Oli now holds New Delhi responsible for the internal crisis brewing within the Nepali political dispensation. The performance of the seven month old Oli government has come under scanner following reports of large scale corruption. Further, a review of the quake-hit regions on the eve of its first anniversary exposed the appalling state of affairs prevailing in the country. The abysmal living conditions and sheer absence of reconstruction work in the devastated regions clearly reflected the deteriorating state of affairs of the country. Despite normalization of trade routes after the rollback of agitation in February, Nepal experienced an acute shortage of fuel and cooking gas suggesting the existence of black marketing consequently inflation reached double digits.

At this juncture, last fortnight, Nepal was at the verge of sinking into political crisis when the opposition threatened to topple the Left alliance headed by Oli of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML). The opposition party Nepali Congress (NC) under the leadership of Sher Bhadur Deuba entered into talks with the second largest party of the coalition, Unified Communist Party of Nepal (UCPN-M) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and the Madhesi People Right Forum, Nepal (Democratic) to pull down the Oli government. Citing massive corruption, inability to resolve the Madhesi issue and for failing to speed up the reconstruction of infrastructure in the quake-hit regions.

As per the agreement, UCPN-M leaded by Prachanda would head the government with the external support from NC and Madhesi Parties. With the political crisis surfacing in Nepal after the NC’s chief Sher Prasad Deuba’s visit and Krishna Bhadur Mahara’s, (a close aide of Prachanda) trip to New Delhi Oli and his aides started blaming India for plotting to topple their government. While the opposition has tried to pull the plug off the ruling dispensation, Maoists made sudden U-turn and temporarily averted the political crisis. Later as per various external inputs received from Nepalese counterparts it emerged that Maoist leader Prachanda made a sudden change of decision under the Chinese influence. But Prachanda denounced Chinese advice in an exclusive interview to HT (1). It is believed that Oli made an agreement with Prachanda that he will not pursue war time crimes against Maoists and promised to step down after presenting budget in Parliament. But for all the hue and cry Nepal always had a dubious distinction of having the most unstable governments and plagued by political instability.

While Nepal alleges to be victim of the excesses two big geographical nations, it is ironic that Nepal invariably plays China card with India too often. India and Nepal are historically, traditionally and culturally related and share a deeper connect. Both countries share porous borders that facilitate free passage of men and material without any restrictions. India allows its Nepal counterparts to work and settle down in India. Nepal is home to several thousands of Indian Army pensioners and Ex-servicemen. Moreover several Nepalese work in India in various positions and India is greatest source of remittances to Nepal. India and Nepal enjoy unparalleled camaraderie.

In spite of serious misgivings between both the countries India rushed all its resources and launched “Operation Maitri” to assist the quake torn country. The Modi government indeed accorded highest priority for resurrecting relations with Nepal. He became the first prime minister to visit Nepal in 2014 after a gap of 17 years. The volume of diplomatic engagement with Nepal which includes two visits of the Prime Minister, five by Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj, and four by the foreign secretaries in the past two years suggests the importance accorded by India in refurbishing its ties with Nepal. The outgoing Nepalese ambassador opined that India is the main artery for Nepal. As a parting message he said “politicians will keep changing but people of the two countries are connected to heart with each other roti beti ka rishta hai”. As Nepal started blaming India for the domestic crisis, media is rife with reports of dwindling New Delhi’s aid to Kathmandu. MEA contested the spurious reports and MEA confirmed that 300 crores worth funds were disbursed (2).

Interestingly, Nepal seems to be happy with the excess interventionism of China with sections of media favoring Chinese influence. Beyond the rhetoric that Nepal currently seems to opine India as a bullying big brother, it should realize its indispensability on India’s air space for connecting to the external World. While Oli has been making desperate efforts to find alternate trade transit routes through the inhospitable and mountainous terrain of Tibet, it can be more expensive and arduous. Moreover the porous borders of India are in sharp contrast to the strictly regulated Chinese borders. Further, Nepal must realize that Beijing is reluctant to open Tibet for the benefit of Nepal despite donning the role of alternative trading partner. Moreover, with reports indicating Chinese intervention in Nepal’s political turmoil, decades of its loud proclamations of non-interference in any country’s internal affairs is now a myth. All these dramatic twists and turns in the Nepali political dispensation clearly speaks volumes of growing Chinese influence on Nepal. It must be recalled that Oli following his bilateral foreign trip to India visited Beijing and signed several agreements. The Himalayan Times hailed Oli’s visit to China and “celebrated it as a step to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India”.

While smaller countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan opine India’s paranoia over China’s growing influence in the region is unwarranted; hegemonic rise of Beijing, undeterred maritime expansion spree and collusion with Pakistan might have dubious repercussions. Alarming developments in South Asia defended by China are taking a toll on India’s strategic affairs. Checkmating India at various platforms including-vetoing India’s bid to designate Masood Azar as q terrorist at UN, stalling India’s membership to the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) and more recently increased deployment of troops across LAC by China aren’t propitious signals and Delhi is increasingly wary of China. India’s concerns over China’s growing influence in its own backyard, aren’t thus unwarranted. But India too must learn its lessons and should refrain from exercising diplomatic heavy-handedness. It must clearly express its disappointment towards the discrimination meted to the Madhesis in unequivocal terms and resist the temptation of wading into the political murky waters of Nepal. Meanwhile, the Madhesis have intensified their protests in the capital city Kathmandu throwing the inept Nepali government into a tizzy. Nevertheless, Nepal must stop blaming India and should put its house in order first. Mending ties will be in the best interest of both countries.

Indian strategists now largely endorse that Nepal is a spoilt brat. It is a decade now, Nepal successfully trounced the entrenched Monarchy and ushered Nepal into an era of functioning democracy. In reality little has changed on ground, feudal autocracy was replaced by a lobbied bunch of greedy politicians. Quake devastated Nepal received millions of funds from international agencies and neighboring countries. More than a year later, people are homeless and languishing in the rubble. Politicians instead of accelerating the pace of reconstruction and rehabilitation are busy blaming India for the domestic crisis.

In the meanwhile, the new constitution with discriminatory clauses fanned the ongoing Madhesi Rights struggle that was in vogue from 1950’s. Madhesis allege that an agreement was reached between their leaders and former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala on Feb 28^th 2008 conceding to their demand for “autonomy, inclusive constitutional safeguards, proportional representation and federalism”. While these commitments were honored and incorporated in the interim constitution, they were amiss in the new constitution. In retaliation Madhesis intensified their agitation and serious misjudgment of timing by India resulted in Nepali government blaming India for fomenting the agitation. In January, government made new amendments to the constitution that assured inclusivity, but the issue of federalism was not addressed. Unhappy over government’s faulty redress, Madhesis began agitations in Kathmandu now.  Instead of blaming India for the political ruckus, Nepal has to blame its own opportunistic politicians and their grim political games of making and unmaking coalitions to clinch power.

References:

1. http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/the-chinese-advice-behind-prachanda-s-u-turn-on-support-to-nepal-govt/story-4sdNKxZxTu3QRMDdfcnjlN.html
2. http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/indian-aid-to-nepal-hasn-t-dwindled-new-delhi-says/story-Sz4MXZQFC2UHFdMYAZHLWN.html