- Aug 21, 2026
- Mukul Asher
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Global Distribution of Countries by Per Capita GDP in 2025
The World Bank classifies economies globally each year on July 1 using Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in U.S. dollars. This data is converted from local currencies using the specialised Atlas method to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations, and thresholds are adjusted annually for international inflation. The Bank uses a three-year moving average of exchange rates adjusted for price changes (inflation) between the country and the basket of core international currencies (SDR deflator).1 As in previous exercises, in the 2026-27 exercise, the World Bank has categorised 194 countries by per capita income in USD in four income groups: Low income (less than USD 1175), with 25 countries (11.2 percent of the total); Lower-Middle Income (between USD 1176 and USD 4635), with 46 countries (23.0 percent of the total); Upper-Middle income (income between USD 4636 and USD 14375 USD), with 59 countries (30 .0 percent of the total); and High Income (more than USD 14375), with 64 countries (32 percent of the total). It is an impressive achievement that the largest share of 194 countries, 32 per cent, are in the High-Income category; and the lowest share, 11.2 per cent, is in the Low-Income category. 53.0 per cent of the countries are in the Middle-Income category, many of them striving to reach next level of income category. Figure 1 Distribution of Countries by Income Group: The World Bank’s Exercise for 2025 Each year, there are movements across the income groups. In the current exercise, Togo (population of 9.5 million) has been reclassified from Lower Income to Lower -Middle Income. The downward revision of the official population by the Togo government has played a part in this reclassification.2 The World Bank has justified the reclassification of the following countries from the Lower-Middle Income to Upper-Middle Income on the following grounds. Viet Nam: Its population is 102 million. Vietnam tells a story of growth. Powered by an export-led model, the country saw exports surge by more than 15% in both 2024 and 2025, with its GDP growing at 7% and 8% respectively. GNI expanded at an average of 10% annually between 2021 and 2025 — one of the strongest sustained runs in the region. The Philippines: Its population is 113 million. It achieved its reclassification through broad-based expansion. GDP grew at an average of 5.8 per cent per year over five years, reflecting gains across all major industries, not a single sector boom, but an economy-wide shift. Sri Lanka: Its population is 22 million. It is a story of recovery. Just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022, real GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven by a rebound across industries and growth in financial and tourism services. The reclassification is a marker of resilience, though the country only narrowly crossed the threshold. Micronesia: Its population is small, 0.1 million. It achieved modest but steady growth following a prolonged COVID-19 recovery, with construction and agriculture as the main drivers. A significant decline in net primary income tempered the overall gains. Jordan: Its population is 12 million. It was reclassified because of a comprehensive revision of its national accounts. When Jordan's Department of Statistics completed a rebasing exercise, it found that the economy was nearly 10% larger than previously estimated, as a result of expanded statistical coverage through updated surveys, new data sources and enhanced national accounts compilation methodology. Combined with steady growth of 2.8 percent in 2025, the revised data pushed the country clearly across the threshold.3 For countries with large populations and many subnational governments, for a more nuanced analysis, per capita income by States or provinces would be a useful complement. Thus, in the case of India, a country with a population of 1464 million in 2025, organised into 28 states of varying population sizes, and 8 Union Territories, there is a state with a population of 139 million in 2025, whose per capita income (proxy for GNI) of USD 998 classifies it as Low-Income, but India as a country is classified as Lower-Middle Income. There are, however, encouraging signs that growth and development in Bihar are likely to accelerate with the new government, whose governance philosophy and outcome-orientation are aligned with that of the Central Government. These are several states in India whose per capita income classifies them in the Upper-Middle Income category, one category above the classification for India as a whole. For these states, per capita GDP for 2025-26 and respective population are given in the bracket for each state. Thus, Goa (USD 10281, 1.6 million); Sikkim (USD 9526, 0.7 million); Telangana (USD 5524, 38 million); (Tamil Nadu, USD 5437, 75 million); Karnataka (USD 5289, 70 million); Haryana (USD 5162, 31 million); Gujarat (USD 4821, 74 million); and Kerala (USD 4665, 36 million), with a combined population of 326.3 million, are in the Upper-Middle Income category. This is a significant number, greater than the population of many countries currently classified as Upper-Middle Income. The state of Maharashtra, with a per capita GDP of USD 4549 and a population of 128 million, is experiencing rapid growth and is in striking distance of USD 4636, the income level at which the Upper-Middle Income category begins. While China as a country is classified as Upper-Middle Income in this year’s exercise, its three provinces, Beijing (USD 32038), Shanghai (USD 30,486), and Jiangsu (USD 22,569) exhibit per capita GDP well above the High-Income category. Beijing exhibits per capita GDP 4.23 times higher than the province of Gansu, with the lowest per capita GDP.4 While there is no country which has been reclassified from Upper-Middle Income to High Income, there are two countries which are likely to qualify for a High -Income category status in the near future. Thus, according to the World Bank, China, with a 2025 GNI value recorded at $14,230 (Atlas method), is falling roughly 1% short of the high-income threshold. The 2026 Projection for China is to reach or exceed USD 14,554, requiring a modest growth rate of about 2.3 per cent to clear the threshold. The World Bank will officially update and announce China's status as a high-income economy in its July 2027 classification release based on these 2026 figures. China moved from lower-middle to upper-middle income in 11 years (2010), and the subsequent climb to high-income status spans roughly 16 years. This is a very impressive record. With China in the High-Income category, the share of the global population in this category can be expected to rise substantially. The second country is Malaysia. It is currently classified as an Upper-Middle Income country, with a 2025 GNI of USD 12380. Projections suggest Malaysia could cross the threshold into high-income status around 2026 to 2028 if current economic growth and currency stability continue. Concluding Remarks The World Bank’s annual July exercise to classify countries according to income groups provides a valuable input for policymakers and researchers. But it needs to be complemented with other information, such as distribution of GNI per capita across states or provinces in a country, and a measure of how evenly income is generated at lower sub-national levels. The extent to which the economy is diversified, its complexity, and resilience are also relevant for policymakers. References https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/who-moves-up-and-why--a-closer-look-at-the-new-world-bank-group- https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/business/finance/world-bank-income-reclassification-lessons-for-uganda-as-global-peers-move-upward-5562814 (Accessed on 18 August 2026) https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/who-moves-up-and-why--a-closer-look-at-the-new-world-bank-group- (Accessed on 15 August 2026) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093666/china-per-capita-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-province/?srsltid=AfmBOoqper5zojhvsVIzx4WecRLcN0CMal5emr7iXRspoXRZkrdMPDAs (Accessed on 18 August 2026)- Aug 21, 2026
- Major General S.B. Asthana
