The Third Front is a bundle of contradictions and Rahul Gandhi heading a Mahagathbandhan only makes it worse
- In Politics
- 09:19 AM, Oct 15, 2018
- Aadit Kapadia
The one consistent prediction before every general election in India is that of a 3rd front, which sometimes refers itself as a ‘secular front’. But it is basically regional parties and anyone without an alliance. The only thing that the front does not have is an ideology. So usually the major political formations are BJP+, Congress+ and the 3rd front. There are some parties which don’t join either front, but the major ones will usually ally one way or the other after the polls.
But 2019 has thrown up a different scenario. 2014 changed the course of Indian politics completely. Till the BJP’s stupendous victory, no one really believed that it was possible for a single party to get 282. But Narendra Modi’s victory changed it all, it put BJP as the single most dominant force in the Indian politics and the victories in the subsequent state elections only solidified that status.
This led to the concept of a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (MGB) – a situation where all the opposition parties and in some cases a majority of the opposition parties would come under the pretext of saving secularism. Congress – especially in states like UP and Bihar where it is a minor player was happy to play along. It worked to some extent in Bihar where they did win in an alliance with the JDU and RJD, but JDU since has rejoined the NDA and the MGB is in tatters since. In UP, it was only partially there with SP and RLD joining but BSP staying out. Regardless all of them were routed in a huge BJP victory in 2017.
The incredible Indian political juggernaut keeps rolling on and in the last few days it has turned yet another corner. For the last few months, any political analyst worth his/her salt would have told you that the BJP has an uphill task in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Not insurmountable but a very tough challenge. Especially in Rajasthan the challenge is tougher but both MP and Chhattisgarh are considered a 50-50 battle for now. Hence, Congress was desperately trying to get into an alliance with BSP in MP and Chhattisgarh.
But in the last few weeks or so, Mayawati has been singing a different tune. She has tied up with Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh and has refused to tie up with Congress in MP. Although the reason that she has given is the disagreement on seats, there is more to it than just that. The biggest issue is the lack of support within cadres of this alliance and the factionalism within the Congress in MP which is unable to decide who will be the face for the Chief Ministership. Jyotiraditya Scindhia of course is the in the line to be the face of their campaign but Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are still not giving up on their chance at another shot.
This brings us to a bigger question, if this is the case in a state election where the smaller party may not have significant ambitions, what will happen when it comes to negotiating Lok Sabha seats. The problems will only increase. The cadre will revolt and the idea of MGB might severely backfire. Let’s see UP, Congress is really a factor in only 3-4 seats. Out of which Amethi is already a battleground. Will they be content if the MGB offers then just 3-4 seats there? I highly doubt it.
If they persist and end up getting more seats then the SP-BSP cadres will revolt. There will also be caste equations at play as these parties have different vote banks and in most case they are likely to be some clashes there. The situation in other states like Maharashtra is no different where there are reports that the Sena MPs favor an alliance with BJP. Uddhav may have his own ego battles but an MGB type alliance might finish off whatever is left of the Sena, with Matoshree being their only remaining stronghold.
The inherent contradictions within the parties that are potential MGB constituents might end up taking it down before it is even functional. I plan to cover this in detail in the lead up to the national elections where we will talk about a state by state analysis.
This brings us to the elephant in the room. The Congress may buy its own snake oil that secularism is in danger and try to cobble up alliances on that regard but is anyone ready to accept Rahul Gandhi as their Prime Ministerial Candidate. The answer to that is no. If it was the case then people would’ve come out and said that they would have no issues with him being the face of the alliance. But there are several parties that believe (rightfully so) that Rahul might actually end up harming their prospects than helping them as in a straight Modi vs Rahul fight, the PM will better his 2014 numbers. This is why when Congress keeps harping on the usual ‘secularism in danger’ rhetoric it falls very short.
This by no means indicates that 2019 is a walkover for the PM and neither are thee state elections in December. The campaign is going to be a tough one and probably one of the ugliest ever seen, since the leftist ecosystem is fighting for survival and it is going to use every trick possible. The controversy in Gujarat around migrants and the Congress MLA Alpesh Thakor making inflammatory statements was just one example of the extents that an ecosystem will go to target the other side.
Nevertheless as of now, PM Modi remains as the most popular leader in India and if he is going up against a combined front of Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata, Kanhaiya Kumar, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani; Narendra Modi will comfortably win. As an analyst though I would love to be a fly on that wall and see what happens in that meeting. The bottom line is that an MGB on a national level remains a bigger dream in the studios of Delhi than in the states where the alliances might happen. And so far Rahul Gandhi as done absolutely nothing that might make people believe that he might lead this front.
Image Credits : https://www.facebook.com/rahulgandhi/photos/a.303625490071846/540354239732302/?type=3&theater
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