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Apr 30, 2024
LT GEN P R SHANKAR (Retd)

Is Xi Jinping Ready to Go to War?

Xi Jinping’s China Dream is to rejuvenate the great Chinese nation as he prepares China to deal with worst-case scenarios, withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms. He also wants to increase China’s international standing and influence and enable it to play a greater role in global governance. He has laid a high premium on national security. Accordingly, he is building the People’s Liberation Army to world-class standards by increasing military budgets and inducting new weapons at a frenetic pace. He has intensified training to enhance combat preparedness so that the PLA can fight and win. He has been priming PLA, his instrument for victory, for war for the past ten years. As this may be, China is currently locked in a dangerous face-off with India in the high Himalayas. Every other day in the South China Sea, the Coast Guard vessels of China and the Philippines are bumping each other dangerously. Elsewhere in the region Chinese air and maritime forces carry out belligerent moves almost daily. All commentators – military or otherwise predict that China will invade Taiwan sooner than later to annex it since the political option of reunification has receded. To achieve this China must checkmate/ force the US military out of this region. The Japanese and South Koreans are upping their defense capabilities to ward off a belligerent China, which eyes to grab all the territories disputed with them. All these situations portend a war involving China on one side and one or more of these countries on the other. Recently China published a new standard map that encompasses territories that lie beyond those very areas in which the PLA is involved in territorial/ maritime faceoffs. Usurping the areas notified in the map is part of Xi Jinping’s ‘China dream and rejuvenation’. In addition, he wants China to be the pole of ‘Global Governance’. To attain any of these objectives he will have to take China to war. But the priority is Taiwan. The common expectation is that he will do so. Will he do that? Another significant issue is that Xi Jinping wants to go down in history as the greatest Chinese leader. There is a lot of personal ambition at stake. Hence, before going to war, Xi Jinping must consider two things. Will a war achieve the desired political outcomes for China? What will be his place in Chinese history? That is a double burden on Xi Jinping’s decision-making system. He has been described as a calculated risk-taker by Kevin Rudd, the former Australian PM. Hence, he will not enter a war audaciously in which he or China can lose. After all, war is a risky and unpredictable business whose outcomes are unknown at the best of times. Worse, there are always unintended consequences of any war. What if one of those consequences is China losing, Xi Jinping being vilified or worse still, the CCP being dismantled and left on the scrap heap of Chinese history? Xi Jinping must also be weighed down heavily by the PLA and its (in)capability to ‘fight and win’. If the sackings of two successive defence ministers and countless PLA generals including those from his vaunted Rocket Force and reports of substandard equipment is any guide, two issues emerge. Xi Jinping trusts his generals very little (and vice versa). Further, so many sackings also translate into poor morale in the rank and file and an apparent lack of effective military leadership in the PLA. Not a good condition to either prepare for or prosecute a war. This is compounded by the lack of combat experience of the PLA (which last fought a war in 1979). The situation is even worse when one considers the single-child conscript soldiers of the PLA who might not be prepared to lay their lives on the line. Their parents might not also be prepared to lose their ‘only child’ for the China Dream when their own old-age dreams are at stake. More than that the PLA has been conferred new roles in new battlefields and has been equipped with new weapons at breakneck speed. New leaders, new soldiers, new structures, new roles, new weapons and new battlefields combined with a lack of experience don’t make the PLA a sharp instrument of war. Can it guarantee the grand kind of victory that Xi Jinping wants? The PLA will ‘fight’ when ordered. Whether it will ‘win’, especially against a determined adversary is another matter. The idea that was being propagated that technology-driven wars will be short and surgical where ‘comprehensive national power’ will prevail is now a proven fallacy. Wars remain long, violent and bloody human endeavours. It will do well to realise that ‘GDP’ does not win wars but militaries do. Further, the overall size of your force counts very little. It is what you can put on the ground, in that theatre, in that time, which is more important. How that force fights is most important. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict indicate that it is easy to start a war. However, it is the exit that counts as Putin and Netanyahu would vouch for. This will find resonance in Xi Jinping’s mind. He started a conflict with India four years back. It has not given him victory. On the other hand, it has ‘rejuvenated’ India which has found new strategic confidence in itself. In fact, it has turned the current generation of youth into being against China. In the entire business of war if the political goals are not attained and if unintended outcomes occur, then Xi Jinping would be staring at a strategic defeat. A major determinant in any conflict that China undertakes is how to keep the USA out of the equation. Despite all its bluster, the PLA will have to do something significant to keep the USA out. That ‘something’ itself might lead to widening the conflict which will be beyond the capability of the PLA. China could start a war with one nation and end up fighting with more. The poor military geography of China forces it into the probability of fighting on multiple fronts. A ‘chain reaction war’ is something Xi Jinping and China want to avoid at all costs. A factor that must be occupying Xi Jinping’s mental space is China’s declining demographics and stagnating economy. Can China afford a war under these conditions? For instance, a long-drawn blockade of the Taiwan Straits by the PLA Navy will force the convergence of other maritime forces against it. This could well result in actually choking all the commercial maritime movement along China’s east coast. The threat of the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ could become a reality. The whole endeavour could be a long-term economic self-goal. Such a Chinese dream will definitely be sour for people in the PRC. An honest appraisal by Xi Jinping and his wolf warriors will also make them realise that China has very little trust or diplomatic goodwill with the international community. This will be needed in ample measure during the war. It has no allies or friends barring Pakistan and North Korea. If one considers all factors, the balance of power (military, economic and diplomatic) is not in Xi Jinping’s favour at present. That dampens Xi Jinping’s propensity to go to ‘war by design’ any time soon. Will Xi Jinping go to ‘war by accident ‘? Possible and most likely if certain redlines are crossed. However, even that will be dictated by his priorities and the opportunity that presents itself. Even in that case, he will have to weigh in the national sentiment, his sense of sovereignty, history, culture and the likely outcomes. He will also factor in how the world will respond. Hence it is imperative that all affected parties get together and put in place an integrated deterrence system that has the capability to dent China’s redlines without provoking war. It must be based on mutual cooperation and aid. The dragon has to be pinned down as a pack and not let any individual nation fall. The principle is ‘one for all and all for one’ in the credo of the four musketeers. Image source: News 18

Apr 28, 2024
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Vishwanath Rises and Rises: The Story of Eternal City

True to her style of writing- authentic, objective and factual, the latest book of Padmasri Meenakshi Jain- “Vishwanath Rises and Rises: The Story of Eternal City” is yet another priceless contribution to Bharatiya historicity. India is on the cusp of revivalism which is marked by a greater sense of reverence towards sacred geographies. There is an undercurrent of enthusiasm to understand and assimilate the ethos of our civilisation. To nurture a sense of connect, Sanatanis are more curious than ever to know about the antiquity of their civilisation. Santani’s special attachment to the Sapta Mokhapuris which includes Ayodhya, Kashi, Mathura can be traced to the scriptural citations- “Ayodhya Mathura Maya Kashi Kanchi Avantika Puri Dwaravati chaiva saptaite mokshadayakah” (meaning the seven sacred cities- Ayodhya, Mathura, Haridwar, Kashi, Kanchi, Ujjain, Puri, Dwaraka can bestow moksha to devotees). Hence these seven cities were held in the highest esteemed by Sanatanis. But unfortunately, the temples at Mathura and Kashi are still under partial siege. The Supreme Court’s unanimous historic verdict on the Ayodhya Rama Janmabhoomi case has been a major milestone in India’s civilisational journey. The ruling attested to the significance of incontestable facts and exposed the falsities of the contrived history generated by Marxist and secularist historians. This eventually triggered a significant scepticism towards the chequered history peddled by fake historians and increased an appetite for facts based on primary sources. Ayodhya Rama Mandir consecration has provided fresh impetus to the generational struggle for the reclamation of the Kashi Vishwanath temple which is still dispossessed. Meenakshi’s Ji book aptly caters to the Sanatani quest for a bona fide account of the cumulative events that marked the trajectory of eternal Kashi. The legal battle to reclaim the original temple complex at Kashi received a shot in arm after the scientific survey by the ASI affirmed the presence of a large pre-existing temple beneath the alleged Gyanvapi mosque. This breakthrough ignited a thirst for clinically unravelling and understanding the antiquity. It is in this context Meenakshi Jain’s book made a valuable addition to the existing knowledge repository on the eternal Kashi Kshetra. Kashi kshetra is inextricably intertwined with Sanatana Dharma. For eons, Sanatanis believed that Kashi has been resting on the Bhagwan Shiva’s trident. The three tines represent the three divisions of Kashi- Omkara in the North, Vishveswara in the Centre and Kedara in the South. Hallowed by the pious waters of the Ganges, the place has immense spiritual significance riven with a belief that “Kashya maranam muktihih” implying that dying in Kashi will offer mukti and liberation from the endless cycles of birth and rebirth. Mukti is the quintessential goal Hinduism and hence Kashi is the most sacred place for practicing Sanatani. The book provides an interesting perspective on the ghats. As per Hindu Mythology, each ghat represents 1 lakh species which provides the basis for the Hindu understanding of 84 lakh species living on earth. These 84 ghats symbolise the integration of the 12 zodiacs with the seven chakras of the body and the seven layers of the atmosphere. Kashi which has been integral to Hindu tradition and civilisational moorings was attacked and ravaged thrice. Despite the onslaughts of the fanatical iconoclasm of the Muslim invaders, after every desecration, Hindu rulers and common citizens have rebuild the temple and asserted their unflinching faith in their deities. After the first Ghaznavaid attack on the temple in 1013 CE, the Gahadhavalas rebuilt Vishwanth Mandir, the epitome of Hindu faith and tradition. Around 1584, Todar Mal and Narayan Bhatt reconstructed Vishwanath Mandir and Raja Man Singh built Bindu Madhav temple which was demolished by the Delhi Sultanate (1489-1517). A century later, in 1669, Aurangzeb again destroyed 76 temples in Varanasi and constructed a mosque on the remnants of the existing temple to humiliate Sanatanis and to showcase the superiority of the marauding, iconoclastic faith. Donning the coveted “saviours of Sanatana Dharma” mantle, Marathas developed the Kashi kshetra, rebuilt the ghats, consecrated several shrines and negotiated with the Nawab of Awadh to gain the possession of the Gyanvapi complex. For over 100 years, after the original Vishwanath Temple at the Gyanvapi was pulled down, Ahilya Bai Holkar in 1777 built the present temple which housed the Vishesvara linga as well which was secretly worshipped by the Hindus. Maharaja Ranjit Singh donated gold for embossing the edifice of the shrine and the Raja of Nepal gifted the Nandi. The ongoing legal for reclaiming the Gyanvapi began after Din Muhammed Hussain filed a plea in 1936 claiming the Gyanvapi as Waqf land. The ongoing legal battle is severely hindered in the contemporary times due to shifting stances of the government which even stalled Hindu worship at the traditional shrines within the Gyanvapi Complex around 1993. As highlighted in her book, “Flight of Deities and Rebirth of Temples” earlier, the prolonged battles of Hindus for centuries to reclaim, restore and preserve their civilisational heritage has no parallels. Undeterred, generations of Hindus have made supreme sacrifices to protect their deities. Hailing the Hindu spirit, the author notes-“despite the difficult centuries, the construction of temples in Kashi did not cease, no matter how modest the structures might be”. Kashi, the “City of Light” was an embodiment of Indian Civilisation, has been symbol of Hindu resistance. Etched with mention of the arrival of Bhagwan Shiva in Kashi by Purana Pancalaksana, excavations at one of the three settlements of Kashi, Aktha revealed its antiquity to 18th and 19th BCE. Frequented by Rishis who performed Vedic rituals, Puranas are replete with references to Kashi. The book neatly encapsulates the linear journey of Kashi in time and emphatically buoys the unbroken bond of Sanatanis with Kashi. Besides, Sanatanis all the Indic faith systems have an indelible connection with Kashi. As per Suparshva, the seventh Tirthankara and Parasnath, the 23rd, were both born in Kashi. Buddha delivered his first sermon at Sarnath one of the major settlements of Varanasi. Records indicate that Guru Nanak visited Kashi in 1506 to collect the verses of Kabir, Ravi Das and other saints which were later made part of Guru Granth Sahib. Kashi has been a seat of learning and has been instrumental in religious and cultural revolution. Sri Adi Shankaracharya, who propounded Advaita during his stay in Kashi composed several strotras. He was instrumental in the creation a militarised sect of ascetics, the Dashnami order which waged pitched battles with Aurangzeb’s troops. This sect which organised into akharas protected Sanatana Dharma from the onslaughts of iconoclastic zealotry. Kashi was the adobe of Kabir, Ravi Das and Tulsi Das. Swami Ramanand founder of Ramanandi Sampradaya visited Kashi and settled at Panchaganga Ghat. Reverberating with pulsating literary and cultural discourses, the place has been a magnet for several litterateurs. By patronising and supporting the literary stalwarts, Pandits, seers and saints, the Kashi Kings have kept the literary activity at a high level. The Kashi Dharma Sabha founded by Raja Ishwari Narayan Singh spearheaded the defense of Sanatani tradition. The book brings to life various aspects of Kashi- as a major trading hub, and as a thriving centre of arts and textiles. Citing generously from travelogues, the book offers varied perspectives, one of the views echoed- “Benares has been from time immemorial, the Athens of India, the residence of most learned Brahmins, and the seat both of science and literature. There, it is highly probable, whatever remains of the ancient astronomical knowledge and discoveries of the Brahmins is still preserved…” (William Robertson). With 21 chapters, the book comprehensively explores various facets of Kashi stretching from its heydays of glory under Hindu rulers through the difficult periods of Islamic attacks and the advent of missionaries during British rule. Above all, the book manages to capture the indomitable will and courage demonstrated by Sanatanis towards upholding dharma ensuring the continuity of this timeless civilisation. The corpus of well-researched treatises authored by Meenakshi Jain has immensely enhanced Indic awareness and shed light on an epoch of Hindu resistance. Meenakshi Ji’s diligent research prowess accentuated by her immaculate writing makes this book a must read. PS: Thank you, Indica Books for the hardcopy of the book Image source: X