Introduction

This column analyses demographic dynamics of India and Indonesia, two Indo-Pacific countries with large populations (about one-fifth of the global total) and diverse geography, with significant socio-economic variation among its regions.

The population projections are primarily based on the United Nations, 2019 Population Revision, and use medium fertility trend assumptions. If lower or higher fertility assumptions are used, and if confidence intervals are taken into account, projected figures will differ significantly. This is illustrated for total global population in Figure 1. For select indicators, other sources, are also used.

Figure 1 Variations in Global population Based on Fertility Rate Assumptions, and Confidence Intervals

The policy implication is that these projections should not be accepted without subjecting to rigorous country and regional level projections, for which robust capabilities must be built. Many economic, social, and other policies require such projections, and their quality has important bearing on the extent to which policy objectives can be realized.

Select Demographic Projections

On the basis of select demographic indicators provided in Table 1, the following observations may be made.

1. While total population in both countries is projected to grow in absolute numbers, their share in global population is expected to decrease slightly from 21.2% in 2020 to 20.2% in 2050. This implies lower population growth rate in these two countries than for the world as a whole.
2. India and Indonesia are projected to exhibit moderately rapid ageing as compared to the world. Thus, share of population over 65 years of age, is projected to increase from 12.5% of the global totals of this age group in 2020 to 14.6% in 2050, while corresponding proportions for Indonesia are 2.4% and 3.4% respectively. Similar trends are observed for population above 80 years of age.
3. In terms of their own share of population, the rise in elderly population is even more pronounced. In India, the share of population over 65 years of age is projected to increase from 6.6 percent in 2020 to 13.8 percent in 2050, but the share will continue to remain below the world average. This will also be the case for share of population above 80 years of age.

Indonesia is projected to age more rapidly than India. In spite of having lower share of population over 65 years in 2020, its share will be much higher in 2040 and 2050.

(4) It is not just the share, but the absolute number of aged in India and Indonesia that would pose challenges in devising social protection policies, particularly health care access, affordability,

Table 1

India and Indonesia: Select Demographic Indicators

Source: Estimated from the 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects, Medium Variant Projections¹

and affordability. Both countries are taking commendable initiatives to address the health care challenges. The Wuhan, China (covid-19) pandemic has given added impetus to their health care initiatives.

As of 9 January 2021, Indonesia recorded 2976 cases, and 87 deaths per million population, with 120, 928 active cases. The correspond figures for India were 7521, 109, and 225,040; and for the world were 11474, 246.8. and 23.4 million^2.

 In 2020, India had 90 million and Indonesia 17 million persons aged over 65, but by 2050, these number are projected to be 225 million and 53 million respectively. This implies rapidly increasing absolute number of aged persons. The policymakers need to address both the absolute level and the pace of ageing.

4. In gender ratio, number of males born over females, Indonesia exhibits more balanced ratio than India. India’s ratio, while improving, is projected to continue to exceed the global ratio significantly even by 2050. This is an area where Indian societal norms and behavior needs change, and promotion to reduce gender discrimination[MA1]  is needed.
5. India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the number of children a woman would have in the course of her life if the fertility rates observed at each age in the year in question remained unchanged, for the 2020-25 period is lower (2.14) as compared to Indonesia (2.22). But the TFR of both countries is lower than the world average (2.42). These trends in TFR are projected to continue for 2040-50, and 2050-55 period. By 2020-15, India exhibited near replacement level fertility, which is 2.15. As its TFR is projected to decline further, India will need to address how to adjust to the below replacement level fertility, and have policies appropriate for multispeed TFR among its states.

In India, the first phase of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) was conducted in 2019-20 and its findings were released in December 2020. The fourth round of NFHS was conducted five years ago in 2015-16.

In the first phase of the fifth round, the findings for 22 states and union territories (17 states and 5 union territories) have been presented. A total of 2,81,429 households, 3,07,422 women, and 43,945 men were surveyed across the 17 states.

On the basis of TFR data in select states and Union Territories, the following observations may be made.

First, Except for Bihar, Meghalaya and Manipur, all the other sample states have TFR lower than the replacement rate. In the three states exhibiting above replacement level fertility rate, there has been decline in TFR.

Second, only state exhibiting hight TFR is Kerala, from 1.6 to 1.8. This requires more searching examination, particularly the hypothesis that changing ethnic composition has led to increase.

Third, declining TFR implies changing patterns in cross-state workers; and greater pressure to improve productivity of land, labour, and capital if the living standards are to further improve and meet aspirations of people.

1. https://population.un.org/wpp/ -Accessed on 7 January 2021
2. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ -accessed on 9 January 2021