Who is the front-runner for Uttar Pradesh's 'Game of Thrones'?
- In Politics
- 08:58 AM, Sep 28, 2016
- Aadit Kapadia
As the political cliché in India goes, the road to Delhi goes via Lucknow. The biggest state in India goes to polls in about six months, and all eyes are on it. Uttar Pradesh delivered two seemingly contrasting mandates in 2012 and 2014. But it is also symptomatic of a trend that we have seen with many states going to polls that they would vote for a strong regional party in the state elections and a national party in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP/NDA swept the state of UP in 2014 by winning 73 (71 for BJP and 2 for Apna Dal) out of 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BSP was reduced to 0 and the SP and Congress were reduced to their family strongholds.
Although the BJP pulled off a stupendous victory in UP, it is virtually impossible for it to replicate its performance. There are many factors for this, from the factions in the local units to various local issues. For this election the goal for all the parties is 203, to try and get a simple majority in the Vidhan Sabha. What this also means is that whichever party wins, will see a significant boost to its presence in the Rajya Sabha. This is why the BJP is keen to win big in UP. This is one way that their numbers will increase in the Rajya Sabha, and will help them when it comes to passing legislations. As of now, the pole position seems to be a tough fight between BSP and the BJP. SP is a close third and Congress is nowhere except for the TV studios, if the pre poll surveys are to be believed.
So what are the issues before the people of UP? If word on the ground is to be believed and according to many reports the security situation of the citizens of the state is precarious. Time and again we have heard reports of looting, rapes, murders and the ruling establishment is either a spectator, compliant or completely incompetent to deal with this. A lot of residents of UP have said that during the earlier regime of Mayawati, the security situation was better but the regime was severely plagued by corruption charges. The infamous statues also came back to haunt Mayawati during the elections. Be it the induction of corrupt ministers or brazenly allowing them to run amok without any action, her regime was plagued with such charges.
In spite of this she is still in the pole position with both the other contenders falling short. Why did this happen? As mentioned earlier, apart from restoring the security situation to some extent, Mayawati’s regime was also mired in corruption and was reasonably unpopular. It is in response to this that Akhilesh Yadav started his 2012 campaign and came on a principle of ‘hope’. Although many commentators, including yours truly, were skeptical about it, the people of UP did give him a chance with the biggest mandate that the Samajwadi Party had ever had, which even his father Mulayam Singh Yadav could not manage.
Yet as soon as Akhilesh Yadav took over, the old guard of the Samajwadi Party took over. The same ‘baahubalis’ ruled the roost in UP and the law & order situation deteriorated massively. Politically, his uncles still commanded a significant following amongst the cadre and a tug of war started in the Yadav family. The worst of that war manifested itself in the public eye last month when the party chief had to step in to placate both the sides. Beneath the charade of party unity lies an ugly reality of SP’s dynastic politics which is dominated by one family and the ‘baahubalis’ on the ground. Be it inducting people like Raja Bhaiyya or continuing with ministers like Mohammed Azam Khan, who keeps making one obnoxious statement after the other, the Akhilesh Yadav government is looking down the barrel. Apart from the complete lack of governance, there was a significant rise in communal riots under this government. The incidents in Muzaffarnagar and other small incidents in cities of UP, paint a troublesome picture of his regime which has played in favor of the opposition parties.
This coupled with the massive surge due to the Modi wave resulted in the BJP’s phenomenal win in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The real question is that are the gains made by BJP enough to carry the BJP to a simple majority in UP? The answer is no. There are several factors why this might not happen. Firstly, it has been seen time and again that people have voted differently in the state and national elections. Secondly, there is an emerging trend on the Indian political spectrum that people have voted for a strong leader or a party/coalition that has a face.
The strategy of projecting leaders has helped BJP is numerous elections earlier but for some bizarre reason they haven’t used in everywhere. Although, not having a face isn’t the only reason for losses, having a face might give them a slight edge. So far it seems like the UP BJP is a faction ridden outfit and the central leadership is failing to zero in on a face. This will hurt them in the long run and when push comes to shove, they may lose the extra votes and momentum because they do not have a face.
This especially will hurt them because all the other parties have a face. BSP has Mayawati, SP has Akhilesh Yadav and even Congress which might not even be in contention on a majority of seats has Sheila Dikshit as their face. Whether the Congress’s strategy of targeting the upper caste and minority votes’ works on the ground remains to be seen, but they certainly are approaching these elections differently.
This brings us to a major issue in the UP Elections. Will the caste combinations be an issue this election? They will in certain pockets undoubtedly. I don’t think this will be a pan UP phenomenon but in certain pockets, the parties will have to consider that. But just pandering to it will not win them elections, they will need the incremental vote. This means that all the parties will be looking for votes above and beyond their vote banks. The BJP managed to break these vote banks significantly and got a large number of incremental votes in 2014. Congress is hoping to get some upper caste and minority votes from the traditional parties and try and be a player in 50 odd seats. But with a face unfamiliar to UP politics that might be a tall ask.
This brings us to the numbers game. As far as the numbers of the pre poll surveys and ground reports go, this might be the closest election yet in the last few years. The SP is down but definitely not out. It may be at the third position but Akhilesh Yadav is trying to restore some governance in certain districts and fighting the party strongmen to clear the perception. This would’ve looked genuine had he done it in 2014 when SP was at its weakest point. Doing it 6 months before the election reeks of political opportunism and might not bode well with the voters.
BJP on the other hand seems to have reconciled itself to a ‘collective leadership’ strategy. Although PM Narendra Modi is still the star campaigner for BJP across India, without a face they will not cross the 200 mark. It is highly likely that they will not get the incremental vote and might end up around the 150 mark. BSP on the other hand is hoping that the presence of a strong face in Mayawati and the deteriorating law and order situation will propel it to a significant number, closer to its tally of 2007. The best case scenario for the Congress is getting a significant chunk of seats and then helping the BSP or SP form the government.
It is quite certain that if the elections are held today the BJP & BSP will better its 2012 performance at the cost of SP. But in a 2 horse race, small issues could assume a larger significance and the absence of a face for the BJP could well be a key deciding factor. Either way, this promises to be one of the most fascinating elections that UP has seen in the last few years. For PM Modi it is important that the BJP at least doubles in 2012 tally. Considering how much he and Amit shah had invested in UP in 2017, and the fact that he is a MP from the state; anything short of that would be a huge setback. Atal Bihari Vajpayee made some questionable changes in UP in 2002 which resulted in BJP’s tally being reduced by half then. This also resulted in BJP getting only 10 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections. With PM Modi looking to cross 272 again in 2019, he can ill afford to make any bad decisions in Uttar Pradesh.
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