Twist in the Tale- Lockheed Martin's F-16 C/D Block 70 Production Offer
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 12:14 PM, Aug 12, 2016
- Vijainder K Thakur
Introduction: Lockheed Martin (LM), with backing from the US Government, has offered to build a new variant of the venerable F-16 Fighting Falcon in India.
Designated F-16 C/D Block 70, the fighter would introduce the following new capabilities.
- AESA Radar
- 4th/5th generation interoperability
- Enhanced Data Processing
LM has in the past set up local production lines in Belgium, The Netherlands, Turkey and Korea. The offer to India goes beyond the past co-production arrangements - the company is ready to make India the sole producer of all future variants of the F-16 fighters and is ready to set up a joint venture (JV) with the majority stakes being held by an Indian company.
LM sees a potential for the JV to export at least 100 fighters within the next 5-7 years.
This is an offer we have never made to anyone before," says George Standridge, vice-president (aeronautics strategy and business development), Lockheed Martin.
India urgently needs medium, multi-role fighters to address the serious depletion in its fighter squadron strength caused by the obsolescence driven phasing out of its older MiG-21 variant fleet.
The F-16 C/D Block 70 would be among the most capable 4th generation multi-role fighters in the world. LM would be able to supply the fighters within months, not years, of signing the contract, since the order backlog is minimal.
Over the next 30 years, air forces of major powers are expected to feature a mix of 4th and 5th generation manned fighters. Current generation 4th generation fighters like the F-15, F-16, F/A-18, Su-30, Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale will continue to be fielded with improved 5th gen fighter interoperability.
The LM offer dovetails beautifully into the current government's Make-in-India policy thrust, and in some ways goes well beyond.
If India accepts the offer, the IAF will quickly halt and then reverse its fighter strength depletion. The service would augment its fire power to levels that would make the country far more secure than it presently is.
Go ahead, pinch yourself, to make sure you are not asleep and dreaming. Yes, the LM offer does sound too good to be true.
Having made sure we are awake, let's look beyond the LM marketing hype for any catches.
Two are readily evident.
Conditional Offer
The LM offer
- Entails no ToT. (Ah! Ha!)
- Is conditional to an IAF order for an economical viable number of aircraft. (Ah! Ah! Ha!)
Time to pause and absorb the twist in the plot line.
What LM is offering to India is licensed production / local assembly of the F-16. India in the past has license manufactured MiG-21 variants and Jaguar. It currently license manufactures Hawk Mk.132 AJT and Su-30MKI.
The LM licensed production offer, despite the Make-in-India spin, is no big deal.
As mentioned earlier, in the past Belgium, Netherlands, Turkey and Korea set up F-16 'production lines' in partnership with LM...and have since closed them, with no evidence of any serious ToT!
India's Real Need - ToT
India doesn't need another license production arrangement. What it needs is R & D assistance.
After a struggle of 30 years, India's Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) has learn't to build a contemporary fighter. The Tejas LCA is 70% indigenous by value at the LRU level. However, India still hasn't mastered design and development of critical fighter components such as contemporary fighter aircraft engine and radar.
The Tejas LCA was inspired by the F-16 in the early 80s. Despite its severely stretched development timeline, the Tejas, fitted with a more powerful engine and a capable AESA radar, could still be be a worthy alternative to the F-16.
India doesn't need the F-16 as much as it needs single crystal blades that retain strength at high turbine temperatures so that the Kaveri engine developed for the LCA could produce its rated 81 KN reheat thrust. India needs a multi-mode AESA radar for the LCA that can engage adversary fighters at beyond visual range (BVR) and guide smart weapons aimed at adversary ground targets at stand-off ranges.
Economically Viable Order Quantity
The LM offer is understandably conditional to an IAF order quantity that would justify setting up a production line and therein lurks danger. A large F-16 order could result in the IAF losing interest in further development of the Tejas LCA. Firstly, because the F-16 order would leave no money for additional Tejas LCA purchase. Secondly, being a matured design fitted with well integrated sensors, weapons and avionics, the F-16 will outperform the Tejas in squadron service making it look worse than it really is. The F-16's high cost would become moot. Trained to fight and win wars, IAF squadron pilots aren't inclined to perform performance vs cost analysis.
If the IAF loses interest in the LCA Mk-1A and LCA Mk-2, ADA would be hard pressed to deliver on the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) project.
F-16 / F-35 Interoperability
An important ingredient of the F-16 C/D Block 70 upgrade is F-22/F-35 interoperability. Were the IAF to commit to the F-16 in large numbers, It's likely that the IAF would be drawn deeper into the LM ecosystem of 4th/5th generation fighters at the cost of the Russian (Su-30/FGFA) or Indian (Tejas/AMCA) ecosystem.
With a limited budget, the IAF could not possibly work with two different 4th/5th gen ecosystems.
Conclusion
Based purely on the outstanding capabilities of the F-16 C/D Block 70 and the likely short delivery timeline, MoD should consider acquiring the aircraft, but only in limited quantity, to address the depletion in fighter squadron strength.
Acquiring the aircraft under Make-in-India could prove detrimental to the country's interest in the long run, since the LM offer does not include ToT and an order quantity that would justify setting up local production would adversely impact the IAF's ability to support the LCA Mk-2 and AMCA programs. Local production could also draw the IAF too deeply into the LM ecosystem of 4th/5th generation fighters.
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