Rafale and the Rationale for another Light Weight Fighter
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 12:52 AM, Apr 16, 2016
- Vijainder K Thakur
India has scrapped the Rs 90,000 crore (approximately $15 billion) MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets, 108 of which were to be produced in India by HAL. The move followed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement April 10, 2015 that India had requested France to supply 36 Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible under a government-to-government contract.
Defence minister Manohar Parrikar briefed the Indian press on the PM's announcement on Monday, April 13, 2015. Here are some important points that he made.
The exact number of Rafales to be eventually purchased has not been decided.
"We have not purchased all 36 aircrafts. When there is a PM or President level deal, it is matter of principle clearance. We have promised to purchase 36 aircrafts. The major reason for the deal is to induct it in the minimum time frame. It is a good deal."
Parrikar went on to allude that the number of Rafales purchased could be larger.
In a later interview with NDTV he clarified that the option to produce Rafale locally remained on the table.
Rafale is unaffordable as one-to-one MiG-21 replacement, as also an overkill!
Parrikar said, "Rafale is a top end fighter and satisfies other criterion as well. The aircraft is expensive and hence we have to take steps. The deal for 126 jets would have cost Rs 90,000 crore. Rafale cannot replace MiG-21. Tejas can do that."
He explained that the Rafale was far more capable than what a MiG-21 replacement like Tejas needed to be. Rafale can carry twice the payload (24 tonnes) of a Tejas (10-12 tonnes) and loiter for hours. The aircraft's 1000-km combat radius far exceed the 300-450 km combat radius of existing IAF aircraft.
Rafale is a strategic purchase.
Parrikar referred to the Rafale purchase as being strategic in nature raising speculation in the press that he was alluding to the aircraft being a nuclear weapon delivery platform.However, this is unlikely. Rafale does have a formidable range and the inbuilt ability to suppress enemy defenses while penetrating heavily contested airspace, but it would still need standoff precision guided air-to surface missiles to deliver nuclear warheads on targets. There is no evidence that France would be ready to sell such missiles to India, not to mention that the US would almost certainly scuttle such a deal with less than subtle arm twisting.
The alternative mode of nuclear weapon delivery is toss bombing, which is highly inaccurate, not to mention dangerous for the aircrew. Indeed, the air leg of India's nuclear triad is a very dubious, if not non existent. But that is another story. Parrikar was more likely referring to the ability of the Rafale to hit Chinese industrial base.
The IAF might induct another lightweight, single engine fighter besides the Tejas.
Parrikar said the IAF would replace its MiG-21 fleet with LCA and possibly another lightweight fighter to be locally produced.
"Rafale is not a replacement for MiG-21. LCA Tejas is a replacement for MiG-21. Or, if we build some other fighter under 'Make in India', that is also possible. If we build another single engine [fighter] in India, which is possible, that could be a replacement for the MiG-21", said the minister.
Clear Vision
The government seems to have a clear vision. Its plan is to quickly halt IAF fighter fleet depletion caused by obsolescence of older MiG-21 variants, through an outright purchase of Rafale aircraft, and give itself time to explore more cost effective one-to-one MiG-21 replacement options.Strong on logic, Parrikar's statement should have muted the press criticism of the Rafale purchase. Ironically, it has raised more hackles in a segment of the press.
Where does another lightweight fighter fit in when we have our LCA, is a recurring theme of the criticism being leveled. Why is 'Make in India' being abandoned? Here is a detailed explanation to both these queries.
MiG-21 Fleet Replacement Challenge
The MiG-21 fleet is large - almost 15 squadrons, or nearly 300 aircraft. The fleet is also far down the road towards obsolescence. The window of opportunity for the IAF to replace the fleet without dangerous depletion of its force levels is now small. Replacements need to take place at a steady and relentless pace as the looming obsolescence.
It's true that the Tejas LCA Mk-1 is likely to become operational soon, but two important points need to be kept in mind. LCA Mk-1's performance shortfalls and the LCA Mk-2's uncertain development timeframe.The IAF doesn't consider the LCA Mk-1 a worthy replacement for the MiG-21s on account of performance shortfalls caused by GTRE's failure to develop the aircraft's Kaveri engine; It's well known that the Tejas doesn't meet IAF Staff Qualitative Requirements.
The MiG-21 is primarily a home defense fighter with limited close air support ability. Tejas matches, or marginally exceeds the performance of the Bison, the most advanced MiG-21 variant. However, Tejas doesn't have the required edge over Pakistan's F-16 and JF-17 fighters, or Chinese J-10 and J-11 variant fighters. As a home defense fighter it should be clearly superior to enemy fighters. Remember the PLAAF will enjoy an overwhelming quantitative edge, and so will the PAF in any two front war. Without qualitative edge, the IAF will not be able to deliver on its commitment to safeguard Indian skies.The IAF is banking on the LCA Mk-2 to give it the qualitative edge that it so desperately needs Unfortunately, the Mk-2 is still on the drawing board!
In a proactive move, the IAF ordered 2 squadrons of Tejas LCA Mk-1 to streamline supply chain and maintenance support issues associated with operating the newly developed aircraft. This will ensure that when the Mk-2 (which is expected to feature large commonality of subsystems with Mk-1) is inducted into service, the aircraft can be operationally deployed in quick time.
ADA initially projected that LCA Mk-2 would make its first flight in 2014, with full-rate production to follow two years later. Considering that the final design of the aircraft has yet to be presented to MoD for release of development funds, first flight is unlikely before 2020. If you factor in the time required to complete the test program, obtain operational clearance, etc., it becomes clear that the LCA will at best partially replace the MiG-21 fleet. Another lightweight, single engine replacement in the force mix is inevitable.
Make in India Remains Enduring Theme
During the press conference, Parrikar clarified that "Make in India" continues to be an enduring theme of the current government.
"Make in India part of the deal will be discussed between ministries," he said.
In his interview with NDTV referred to above, Parrikar explains why HAL is being kept out of the Rafale deal."If HAL were to make Rafale, why would it push production of Tejas which would reduce our need for Rafale?" he asked?
The Rafale deals stipulates 50% offset obligation so its unfair to claim that the government has abandoned 'Make in India.' What the government has done is not allowed the 'Make in India' concept to compromise the nation's security. Pragmatism has prevailed on a matter of national security. Can the government be faulted for it?
Also Read: https://www.myind.net/why-outright-purchase-36-rafales-makes-sense
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