Offensive Defense -India’s Pak approach
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 09:11 PM, Sep 28, 2016
- Dipankar Jha
Early morning of 18th Sep 2016, terrorists, trained and equipped from Pakistan, successfully attacked an Army camp in Uri. 17 soldiers died on the spot. 30 more were injured. The injuries were serious and the fatalities have since increased. This is the single biggest terror attack since the swearing-in of the present dispensation in Delhi in 2014. After May 2014, other terrorist attacks in Jammu, Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Pampore have made global headlines.
It is important to understand that these specific attacks originated from Pakistan with terrorists being trained and equipped in that country. It is also important to note that so far, India has not taken any offensive action against such violations of its sovereign territory.
This is despite Ajit Doval, the present National Security Advisor, in the past stating that if Pakistan were to undertake another Mumbai like attack it would lose Balochistan. Doval definitely understands the responsibility behind such bold statements.
Is it then a coincidence that on 15th Aug 2016, PM Modi announced from the ramparts of Red Fort the Indian support to a Free Balochistan? This is now a new thrust in the Indian Foreign Policy and specifically in the way India deals with Pakistan. The support now extends to All India Radio, Baloch transmission and political asylum to Baloch nationalists.
This is clearly a move in resonance with what Doval had stated when he was not the NSA. India is trying to cleave Balochistan from Pakistan. India has actually taken steps in that direction. The trigger because of the timing of the announcement appears to be CPEC but could easily be one of the numerous above listed terror attacks. Exactly when the red line was crossed is not determinable with the data available but what is surely visible is that India has made its move.
The Uri Outrage
Shri Modi’s pre-election campaign proclamation on 56 inch chest was music to the ears of Indians while it has provided his baiters the proverbial stick to beat his government with. Post the heinous attack on the army base in Uri, the citizens of this otherwise peaceful country stand outraged. For once, they want the Government of India to go on the offensive. They do not want their country to be a shock absorber any more, especially with respect to Pakistan. The Prime Minister’s pre poll rhetoric has added fuel to the fire. Adding more wood to this outrage is the political opportunism which sees this as a best time to harangue the NDA government.
As it stands today, the political opponents know better than the common people that direct military action may only be possible in a very limited scenario which may or may not exist. The question of capability of Indian Army does not arise since what is required of the Indian Army is not defined. If that requirement is defined, then we may discuss the capabilities.
The actual scenario
Pakistan is a unique country today. It is like a frail, diseased human supported by crutches bought and supplied by someone else. It has a government but is run by the army. It has an army but the weapons are Chinese made and controlled. It has a country but its roads, ports and railways are with Chinese. Its people are either with Jamat Ud Dawa (or LET) or with Taliban. Those who do not belong to either want to quit Pakistan. They have external debts, internal debts and also circular debts. If IMF were to pull back its loans (which it should, given that Pakistan has faulted on all conditions), Pakistan would crash into an economic crisis bigger than that of Zimbabwe. The Indian on the street would be excused therefore for making the mistake of wanting to take on Pakistan militarily. It should be easy to defeat a country so weak!
Unfortunately, for Indians and the peace loving world, any military action against Pakistan by India would almost certainly attract a response by China. The Chinese are more heavily invested in Pakistan than even the Americans or IMF. This is not because of their investments in Pakistan but the western sea access that a united Pakistan provides China.
The Chinese response in itself is not dangerous or something India would not be able to handle but the fact that China enables Pakistan with nuclear weapons, both tactical and strategic, ties India down. Make no mistake, India’s military option vis-à-vis Pakistan are tied down by the low threshold a rogue, poverty stricken State like Pakistan would exhibit in using either tactical or strategic nuclear weapons. For a country like Pakistan which has invested little towards its development over the last seventy years, there is very little at stake in case the war goes nuclear. On the other hand, Indians who stand proud of their efforts to develop and grow, find the costs of a nuclear war unpalatable.
Window of Opportunity
In 1962, the Cuban missile crisis was rocking the world. The two global super powers of the word were locked in a dangerous tango from 16th to 28th October 1962. This was an ideal window for China to attack India and on 20th Oct 1962 they launched the invasion. They were prepared in advance but the US and USSR, the two powers who could dissuade or stop China were too busy with themselves to really do something to stop China. The US did offer India assistance but it was too meager to really stop China. Diplomatically, China was free from global pressures.
In 2016, the sole superpower, United States is a global power in retreat. Global economy is staring into another recessionary plunge. The Russians are nowhere as dominant as USSR was. Plus, both USA and Russia have fresh eggs to fry in Ukraine and more importantly Syria. The US is also in an election year where the Americans are far too busy with an acrimonious election cycle. The Chinese are facing multiple economic challenges after a prolonged growth cycle and something worst in the Indo (South) China Sea. Their tensions with Japan, South Korea, Phillipines and other neighbours limit their options on engaging fruitfully on multiple fronts in a military or offensive situation.
Is there a window of opportunity for India here?
It is in this background, that Ajit Doval’s statement on Pakistan losing Balochistan and his doctrine of Offensive- Defence must be viewed.
The Game of Chicken
Bertrand Russell wrote on nuclear deterrence and it is worth quoting here:
“Since the nuclear stalemate became apparent, the Governments of East and West have adopted the policy which Mr. Dulles calls 'brinkmanship'. This is a policy adapted from a sport which, I am told, is practiced by some youthful degenerates. This sport is called 'Chicken!'. It is played by choosing a long straight road with a white line down the middle and starting two very fast cars towards each other from opposite ends. Each car is expected to keep the wheels on one side of the white line. As they approach each other, mutual destruction becomes more and more imminent. If one of them swerves from the white line before the other, the other, as he passes, shouts 'Chicken!', and the one who has swerved becomes an object of contempt. As played by irresponsible boys, this game is considered decadent and immoral, though only the lives of the players are risked. But when the game is played by eminent statesmen, who risk not only their own lives but those of many hundreds of millions of human beings, it is thought on both sides that the statesmen on one side are displaying a high degree of wisdom and courage, and only the statesmen on the other side are reprehensible. This, of course, is absurd. Both are to blame for playing such an incredibly dangerous game. The game may be played without misfortune a few times, but sooner or later it will come to be felt that loss of face is more dreadful than nuclear annihilation. The moment will come when neither side can face the derisive cry of 'Chicken!' from the other side. When that moment is come, the statesmen of both sides will plunge the world into destruction.”
Decision makers in New Delhi face the same dilemma when trying to solve the challenge that is Pakistan. A direct military confrontation cannot be guaranteed to be nuclear safe. All actions to neutralize nuclear weapons will finally lead to the game of Chicken because Pakistan will easily acquire from China technology and advancement what India will spend years and billions on. While we may try calling Pakistan’s bluff, the cruel joke may be on us if we are wrong.
This leaves anyone trying to permanently solve the problems emanating from Pakistan with the only option of breaking Pakistan from within. Balochistan along with POK was the war bugle sounded from the Red Fort on 15th August 2016. It may not have been the first move but it was the first overt move by India. Pakistan has responded. Pakistani non state actors attacked the Indian Military at Uri and inflicted one of the highest casualties post Mumbai 2008. On the nuclear chessboard, Black has moved to e5. White to move!!!
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