Manufactured Negativity around Demonetization
- In Politics
- 09:03 AM, Dec 30, 2016
- Shwetank Bhushan Singh and Abhinav Sharma
The only subject of conversation in the country today is demonetization and it is becoming more interesting day by day because everyone has a view on it. The reason is simple. Every bit of life is delicately weaved around money, and when one talks about the impact of demonetization, they are making a comment about every aspect of their living. We have another week to go, and this longest trending hashtag is going to carry on for some more time. Such is the enormity of this disruptive reform.
But what is utterly annoying is the increasing irrationality surrounding the narrative.
India is a heterogeneous country with huge population base and making a generalized assumptions about the country, and how people live their everyday lives relying on personal anecdotes of one’s driver, one’s maid is foolish. It is not that there is no hard evidence to tell how things are panning out on the ground.
But in most cases, we seem to be not looking for evidence, but for confirmation. An argument based on anecdotal narration serves a purpose, that of ignoring its peculiarity and highlighting how good or bad things can be and not how things are. Not surprisingly, these arguments find suitable anecdotes as evidence to support one's previously held views.
We are living in the era of social media and the trend of our times is that we know before we see. The majority get their news and government notifications via Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp memes. In Social Media, lots of jokes and messages about failure and success of the demonetization policy are being shared. More than the number of notes being exchanged, the demonetization memes are in circulation. Humor is humankind's greatest blessing and is good for both the health and the mood. Like this hilarious topical one that seizes the moment.
But a person reveals his character by nothing so clearly as the joke he resents. I can sense the negativity and irritation being triggered through jokes and memes among the millions of middle class and rural population of India to manufacture particular perception.
The usual suspects who are working overtime, much more than any honest banker in the last 40 odd days are the same mainstream media folks covering every inconvenience faced by the public at the ATM or Bank queue and spreading negativity around the move. Some news channels are too busy running around small streets with pink Rs 2000 notes asking Paani-Puri walas "मुझे पानी-पूरी खाना है, भैया छुट्टे हैं?" (I want to eat the snack, brother, do you have change?) In return, the poor amused guy only smiles. Then follows the eureka moment: "all these small vendor's business has suffered, how they are going to run the family?" Like this one poor Mr. Nandlal.
We are all concerned about such small time traders whose business is entirely cash based. But at the same time, we should also be concerned about hundreds of millions of other people waiting to enter the workforce, who will be unemployed if radical measures are not undertaken. We have to be balanced and sensitive both and must discard the lopsided concern.
The Opposition's propaganda is very clear - spread the negativity against demonetization, suppress all the advantages and highlight every side effect. Some frequently shared messages are:
"Mr. Modi, whatever were/ are your ambitions to take India towards a cashless economy, the 'poor rural Janata' is paying too much price. Intentions take the back seat when the execution is scoring so low."
No data, no survey, nothing backs this generalized concern. Those who look down at the ‘poor Janata' only through the lens of victimhood, divest them from their right to emotions like pride and sense of responsibility. Some humility would be in order when we talk of the other Indians, especially the 'poor Janata.' People are made of much stronger grit that such disruptions can cause. And we say this with full responsibility.
It makes it difficult to understand why, in spite of the hardships that they are going through, there is a clear hint (exhibit 1, exhibit 2) of significant support for the move. That reiterates the fact that the 'looked down poor Janata' believes that this "fate" is not permanent and there will be a better tomorrow.
The electorate has given clear signals that they care a lot about the war on black money. Looking at demonetization politically suggests that it was a huge risk because of its inherent disruption. A risk is a gamble and it can play both ways and may cause heartburn and pain. But it's a risk only those leaders can take who don't care for themselves but the larger goal.
The political capital invested in this by PM Narendra Modi is enormous. Small traders and businesspeople are not big fans of the demonetization and the general inconveniences. In normal circumstances, it incidentally will hit BJP more since it has angered its core support base in the short run, who are mostly traders.
If one looks back, Mr. Modi's political playbook throws many such unpopular instances from the past aimed at 'greater common good.' In 2006, the power reforms (the Jyotigram Yojana) that he initiated in Gujarat, where arrears from farmers were strictly extracted, is a classic example of how a strict measure feared to be unpopular was pulled off with elan. The scheme did see protests, but also broad public participation. People thought that the farmer's community wouldn't pay for uninterrupted power supply which was proven otherwise.
Elected governments have choices. Sometimes the choice is a very wrong one, and the other is a good choice with some bad in it. It's like life in general. One can ask for the moon but not get it. Politics is, and the only instrument of change and governance must be looked in that manner. Like real life choices. This move had inbuilt disruption, and implementation could not have been foolproof looking at the enormous size of operational requirements. One cannot implement sudden demonetization of 86 percent currency in a country of 1.3 billion in a "good way."
The speed and efficiency with which the process of replacement of notes takes place depends on 'state capacity' which is the known biggest hurdle in India. We should not invest energy in fixing who is responsible for this dismal situation, but at least the previous government representatives should not point a finger to poor implementation.
There may have been flaws in policy and its smooth implementation, but it appears that many people are determined to make the scheme a failure and blame the Modi government. We talk big and curse politicians and leaders without retrospection on how citizens of great countries that we refer contributed to making their nation great.
In last forty odd days, many people who got an opportunity to cheat the country have cheated. Whether he is a banker, or in the cooperative society, or the rich using the house helps, a businessman allowing entry in his books, the jeweler, politicians of known political parties, and the list goes on.
If you add up the figures from all the raids, the amount is mind boggling! It's a sad reflection on our society and tells how deep the rot is.
But based on these incidents, making a sweeping claim that "कुछ नहीं हो सकता इस देश का, सब चोर है" (nothing good can happen to this country, all are thieves) is uncalled for. If you ask those making such claims, what has been their contribution in making their nation better, they will be offended.
Looking at the size of operations and the number of Bank branches and bank employees involved, it also suggests that a vast majority are doing an honest, stellar job.
While political commentators may agree or disagree how this will impact on people's perception, economic commentators should have focused on the monetary economics of the policy. But in the era of perception politics, one can only expect more obfuscation than enlightenment from our learned usually suspected elites.
Many have poked fun of changing guidelines from Govt. on demonetization. One can see it as restless fiddling with rules, and others can see it as the willingness to incorporate feedback and improve on the go. Half glass empty or half glass full is a state of mind. I am on the other hand delighted to see responsiveness (may not be entirely perfect) to public needs and discomfort in the wake of unusual circumstances.
I cannot agree more to Prasanna Vishwanathan of Swarajya Magazine who tweeted this: "It is glaring that the regional chieftains run the most corrupt, casteist, authoritarian and nepotistic regimes. But it is now fashionable to abuse the center," and especially in the Modi regime.
The mainstream media flooded the news channels, and the internet with messages like "Finance ministry official says political parties are exempted under income tax law to deposit old currency notes in their bank accounts," while the truth was entirely different.
Jumping with joy at every half piece of news about how the government is conspiring to fool the people while people "stand in queues and political parties are being exempted from tax scrutiny" is a form of bigotry and is highly irresponsible.
Another bigoted narration is that the demonetization ought to fail because of a large quantum (80% or so) of the old, demonetized high-denomination notes have re-entered the banking system. It is based on the assumption that this money deposited into bank accounts will escape scrutiny and become white, while the daily raids are showing the exact opposite situation.
Once again there is sensationalism on the part of the news media.
There is a curious lot of people who are buying such narratives and spreading lies with impunity. They are the same detractors who also have high expectations and aim for a perfect system, a perfect law, a perfect tax code. Their simplest idea is if the Modi-led Govt. does not correct everything without disrupting anyone, we will bring either Rahul Gandhi or Arvind Kejriwal. Either heaven or hell. These detractors expect him to be answerable for all ills accumulated over decades. Otherwise, he will be replaced with the ones who created these problems. There is a place called Utopia for it. The way to reach that place is by going to a bookstore or online.
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