Layover in Lahore
- In Foreign Policy
- 05:58 PM, Jan 02, 2016
- Sunanda Vashisht
Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned everyone on the afternoon of December 25 when he tweeted that he would be stopping at Lahore en-route from Kabul. What followed was frenzy, high drama and hyperventilating media indulging in breathless conjecturing. Entire world had been caught by surprise. What followed was even more shocking considering the fraught relationship between the two nuclear neighbors who are always at the brink of war. Narendra Modi was received at the airport by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both walked hand in hand on the red carpet that had been specially laid out for the Indian Prime Minister. Together they boarded a helicopter to go to Nawaz Sharif’s residence where his family was celebrating his birthday along with his grand daughter’s wedding. We are told what followed was a typical sub-continent bonhomie. Modi apparently touched Nawaz’s mother’s feet and got her blessings, gifts were given to the bride and rest of the family members. We are told over desi ghee main bani subziyan, kheer and Kashmiri chai, pleasantries were exchanged, photos were clicked and smiles belied the underlying tension between two countries who have fought three wars and have ended up in war like situations several times in last half a century.
Modi’s diplomacy has completely revamped and rejuvenated India’s foreign policy that had been in a state of stupor for last decade. There are no easy solutions to India’s Pakistan problem however, and most Indian leaders have considered status-quo as success. With Pakistan sponsored terror wreaking havoc in India and successive Pakistani leadership vowing to inflict damage on India, the two neighbors have always been engaged in constant conflict since Pakistan’s birth in 1947. The freeze is permanent, thawing has been temporary and crests of engagement like Lahore bus trip by Vajpayee have been followed by trough of conflict and back stabbing like Kargil.
Since Modi assumed Prime Minister’s office he has been reaching out to Pakistan consistently even though he has chosen to rewrite the rules of engagement. First important step was removing Hurriyat from the picture. The motley group of separatists who have acted more as Pakistani representatives than true representatives of Kashmiri people have been finally shown their true place. Any initial trepidations if Pakistan will agree to not engage with Hurriyat Conference officially on Indian soil has now been laid to rest. Pakistan may not give up on Hurriyat any time soon, but it has accepted India will not allow any kind of official engagement with separatists in the dialogue process.
Second important step has been to remove Media from the equation completely. Pakistan means huge TRP’s for Indian news organizations and therefore they have consistently indulged in rabble rousing, empty rhetoric and setting unrealistic expectations. Media treats any India- Pakistan engagement like a T 20 cricket match or a high adrenalin soccer game. Tough diplomacy and nuanced dialogue cannot happen in full media glare. It is now almost clear that Media will play catch up in any kind of Indo-Pak diplomatic engagement.
Third important step that Modi Government took was to engage from a point of strength. When strong message needed to be sent, like no engagement with Hurriyat, it has been communicated without any sugar coating. An interesting example of engaging from a point of strength came on December 25th itself. In Kabul, Modi delivered a stirring speech vowing friendship with Afghanistan and declaring even though there are many people not happy with his being in Kabul, his support to rebuilding Afghanistan is unwavering. The message undoubtedly was for Islamabad. Hours after this hard hitting speech he landed in Lahore amidst much bonhomie. The strategy is clear. India will not stop engaging but it will engage from a point of strength. Modi is under no Aman ki Asha delusion when it comes to Pakistan. Peace is not easy to come by, historical fault lines will not go away quickly and hostilities will not melt in half an hour meeting in Lahore.
The most important question after the Lahore Layover now is will this photo op between two Prime Ministers lead to any concrete solutions and any semblance of peace. No serious observer of Pakistan and India relationship will agree that peace is anywhere in close vicinity. Most observers agree that this trip to Lahore was indeed an out of box and courageous diplomacy. The important piece of puzzle is Pakistani Army which controls Pakistan’s India and Kashmir policy. Nawaz Sharif has ceded much of his foreign policy control to General Raheel Sharif. The billion dollar question is if Sharif in Shalwar Kameez is backed by Sharif in Army fatigues. If this so called surprise layover which I don’t believe was spontaneous, has approval of Pakistani Army then we might have just seen a beginning of historic moment.
I am leaning towards the notion that for the first time Pakistani Army, The White House and New Delhi may be on the same page. If that is indeed true and we see no large scale terrorist attacks in India, then Modi- Nawaz Photo opportunity may have removed the awkwardness and paved way for solid diplomatic parleys. However it is important to always keep in mind that India and Pakistan can slid into abyss of hostilities anytime. All it will take is a terror attack originated from Pakistani soil aimed at India. If that happens, I doubt Modi will let Kashmiri Chai be an impediment to delivering a strong no holds barred message to Islamabad.
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