Is Jayalalithaa set to sweep Tamil Nadu Again?
- In Politics
- 06:43 AM, Apr 25, 2016
- Shashank Davanagere
In an earlier series on Reinterpreting Bihar’s verdict (Part 1 and Part 2) we had looked at how elections pan out in India. The “Causes for Change” mentioned in that article are very pertinent to Tamil Nadu given that both the main parties AIADMK (also called as ADMK) [All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam] and DMK [Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam] have proven to be equally complicit in corruption, nepotism and doling freebies. Despite these “similarities”, Tamil Nadu politics is unique in the country. This was the first state to be actually “Congress Mukt” without truly getting rid of the inherent “Congressism”. In fact, INC lost Tamil Nadu in 1967 and since then its hopes of ever regaining power here are diminishing. This also is the only state to (almost) consistently swing from one party to another past 25 years.
This election will probably mark the end of an era in Dravidian politics. The DMK supremo “Kalaignar” (artist) M.Karunanidhi is 93 years old and ADMK supremo “Puratchi Thavali” (revolutionary leader) J. Jayalalithaa is rumored to be not in good health. It could be called an era of ‘stability’ since everyone knew who was going to win. Since 1991 it has been either Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi as CM of TN [with O. Paneerselvam proxying for Jayalalithaa]
Arithmetic
Now let’s look at some arithmetic in TN elections.
ADMK Track Record:
2014 Seats contested 234, Vote Share 40.0% (national)
2009 Seats contested 138, Vote Share 22.9% (national)
2004 Seats contested 198, Vote Share 22.9% (national)
2011 Seats contested 160, Vote Share 38.4%
2006 Seats contested 182, Vote Share 32.6%
2001 Seats contested 140, Vote Share 31.4%
DMK Track Record:
2014 Seats contested 204, Vote Share 26.8% (national)
2009 Seats contested 132, Vote Share 25.1% (national)
2004 Seats contested 96, Vote Share 24.6% (national)
2011 Seats contested 119, Vote Share 22.4%
2006 Seats contested 130, Vote Share 26.5%
2001 Seats contested 169, Vote Share 30.9%
INC
2014 Seats contested 234, Vote Share 4.3% (national)
2009 Seats contested 90, Vote Share 15.0% (national)
2004 Seats contested 60, Vote Share 14.6% (national)
2011 Seats contested 63, Vote Share 9.3%
2006 Seats contested 48, Vote Share 8.4%
2001 Seats contested 14, Vote Share 2.5%
BJP Track Record:
2014 Vote Share: 18.5% (includes DMDK, PMK, MDML etc)
2011,2009,2006: approx. 2%
Other sundry parties’ track record:
PMK
Since 2001: 5%
DMDK
Since 2006: 8-10%
MDMK
Since 2001: 5-8%
Communists
Since 2001: 5%
Making sense of the numbers
As you can see from these numbers, DMK consistently polls around 25% votes; ADMK around 35% in Vidhan Sabha elections and 22% in Lok Sabha (2014 is an exception that we will look into detail); INC around 8% in Vidhan Sabha and 15% in Lok Sabha. The sundry parties DMDK+MDMK+PMK+Communists around 25% of votes.
The only thing constant in Tamil Nadu has been rivalry between ADMK and DMK. The rest of the parties have at some point in time or other aligned with both DMK & ADMK. It is these parties which decide who gets to rule TN. Every party has a following and people tend to vote for their parties. Hence, the alliance arithmetic of who gets which seat is very important. This is the overarching factor for the elections.
In 2011, AIADMK had a solid coalition with DMDK, CPI, CPM, AIFB and a slew f unregistered parties. The DMK had the Congress, PMK, VCK and KMK. In 2006, the DMK had INC, PMK, CPM and CPI. The AIADMK had the MDMK and VCK.
In 2006, the DMK won because it had the INC with it which was supposedly doing a reasonably job in its first term. Hence, that translated into votes. Plus, the PMK was also a part of the central government. All these were positive factors. In 2011, the Congress was doing very badly at the center and the communists had jumped ship to the AIADMK band wagon.
Tarot reading
The national elections in 2014 were probably a precursor to how TN may vote in 2016. I say this since this was the first election in a long time that the third coalition actually fought together instead of aligning with either ADMK or DMK.
Vote share in the 2014 elections at coalition level:
ADMK: 44.3%
DMK+: 26.8%
NDA: 18.5%
Based on statistical evidence, the 2016 elections pre-election coalitions also indicate something similar. ADMK will probably get its usual share of 35%, DMK+PMK about 35% and Captain Front [DMDK+TMC+MDMK+CPI+CPM+VCK] around 30%.
These factors also strongly indicate that, this is the craziest elections TN has ever seen with no front runner:
- The current government, in light of the Chennai / Cuddalore floods has been seen as ineffective at best, and malevolent at worst. Ideally the DMK would have cashed in on this, but it doesn't seem so given that people still associate them with Congress and corruption in general.
- BJP President Amit Shah’s recent statement calling ADMK the most corrupt should be seen in this light. What BJP is trying is to equate DMK=ADMK=Corrupt. BJP has working relationship with DMDK, MDMK et al. So in direct fight between ADMK and DMK, BJP hopes Vijaykanth’s front wins.
- In general, the AIADMK government is seen as self-serving and the party members have gone overboard with their subservient nature. There is a clear fatigue of seeing Jayalalithaa's photos and cut-outs everywhere. There is a chance that people could get irate at this and possibly vote for any other party apart from the DMK.
- DMK is fielding the 93 year-old Karunanidhi as Chief Minister again. This is to ensure a victory, following which his son Stalin is likely to rule the state. Even a kid in TN knows that Stalin and Karunanidhi’s other son Alagiri don’t see eye-to-eye. That is another issue working against DMK.
- Both PMK and DMDK have been traditionally strong in Northern TN. With both these parties in different coalitions, the winner here may actually be ADMK!!
BJP has no stakes in this elections and just hopes to gain a foothold in Deep South. They see this as an opportunity to place themselves as an alternative when the eventual power vacuum comes. To do that BJP needs an excellent, non-corrupt pan-Tamil Nadu leader. In South it’s always been personality driven and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. This is the same problem BJP has faced in Andhra Pradesh too. It never had anyone who could be “The Leader” in AP. The result is for all to see. Only time will tell us if BJP has learnt the lesson and not go the AP but the Karnataka route [where B.S Yeddyurappa is the face of BJP] in TN.
Who will win Tamil Nadu
This is the first election in 15 years that either DMK or ADMK are not a part of ruling coalition at Center. As a result, the performance of Central Government has no bearing on which party people will choose in Tamil Nadu.
In my decades of following Tamil Nadu politics, this is the first election that I have seen where there is both pro and anti-incumbency but no strong opposition to cash it. If I were to hazard a guess, then I would say that this would be the first time after MGR that an incumbent CM wins in Tamil Nadu. The wise people of Tamil Nadu could disagree with me. May 19th, we will know one way or another.
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