An Insight into the US Elections - Primaries, Caucuses and Presidents
- In American Elections 2016
- 09:09 AM, May 05, 2016
- Fred Stella
For people outside of the US there might be the misconception that we elect our political officials. Locally that is true. We do elect our state legislature and our federal congress directly. But when it comes to the presidency we do not. We elect people who, in turn, elect other people for us. This is what we refer to as our very complicated delegate system. What follows is a rather cursory explanation. Believe me, people who really understand the machinations of this structure are very well compensated, for they have the ability to heavily influence the outcome of elections.
The 1st question that one might ask is, “Why not just elect presidential candidates directly?” That does sound like democracy, doesn’t it? But we are a representative democracy. We feel quite comfortable offering our decisions up to those who “know better.” That is, until they don’t.
To start, we need understand the primary and caucus procedures. Each of the 50 states chooses how candidates are chosen. They hold either a primary, where people go to the polls and vote just the way they would in a general election. Let’s discuss primaries 1st. While there exist several political parties in the US there are only 2 that are serious players in this system: the Democratic and Republican. In some states the rules declare that one be registered in a party to participate. This is a closed primary. Since there are many voters who have not declared allegiance to either party (the so called “Independents”) this means that a large percentage of the population of that state will not get to voice an opinion. The opposite of this is called an open primary. This means that anyone can vote for any candidate. Some people voice concern about this because what can happen is that a group of Democrats can all agree to vote on the Republican ticket (meaning that they then surrender their right to vote for a Democratic candidate) and try to increase the chances of the weakest candidate from that party whom they believe will be easier to beat in the general election. The Republicans can attempt the same thing, of course. At the close of voting a winner is chosen, but that doesn’t mean that other candidates are total losers. We’ll address that later.
Caucuses are different in that they require a great deal more commitment. One doesn’t just go to the polls and pull a lever or write in a name. This involves lengthy meetings where debates among the voters themselves are held and people are persuaded on the spot to change their allegiance. Because of this caucuses get a much smaller turnout. People who participate tend to be older, retired or otherwise in a position to dedicate much more time to the process. Yet, states that hold them seem very passionate about theirs election process of choice. For various reasons some candidates do better in primaries and some in caucuses. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are perfect examples. The former has done exceptionally well in caucuses while the latter is victorious in most primaries.
I mentioned that losers, that is, candidates who earn fewer votes, aren’t “total losers” in all cases. This has to do with state rules in the awarding of delegates. So let’s say that a state, based on its population, had 10 delegates to give a candidate. That is, 10 party officials who will represent that state at the party convention. Some states hold the custom of “winner take all,” meaning that if Candidate A receives 51% of the vote and Candidate B gets 49% it doesn’t matter. Candidate A will get a commitment from that state that all 10 delegates will support him or her at the convention; at least for the 1st vote. In other states delegates are apportioned in a manner that more equitably reflects the voting results. So in this case both candidates will walk away with delegates pledged to them. Usually the person who got the most votes will win more delegates than those who earned less. So if you are a delegate you agree to cast a vote at the convention for the candidate you are chosen to represent. You may not like the person and hope for his or her failure. But your duty is to vote as told-- at least in the 1st round at the convention. If no consensus is reached and further rounds are called for then a delegate is free to vote for any candidate.
Another important thing to note is that while each state has its own rules for conducting primaries or caucuses, each party has its own rules for how the results play out in the end at the convention. For instance, the number of pledged delegates required to get the nomination is different between Republicans and Democrats. Also, Democrats have a ranking called “superdelegate.” One who is in this position is a member of the upper echelon of the party such as being an elected office holder. Superdelegates are not held to vote for a particular candidate at any time. They may publically support and vote at the convention for whomever they wish. They hold a great amount of sway. As you might imagine, this superdelegate system is not without its controversies. Some claim that it’s a fixed affair that keeps party insiders in power and exists only to reward political favors and long term relationships. But the other side claims that in close races it may take seasoned statesmen and women to make the shrewd decisions as to who might be the most electable person in the race. What some people fear is a scenario where it is clearly not a close race and the numbers show that the voters wish to send Candidate A to do battle with the Republican nominee but the superdelegates completely override their will and select Candidate B. Since this system was put in place a generation ago we can agree that the voice of the delegates (super and otherwise) has pretty much mirrored the voice of the party regulars.
This particular election has been eyed as one that might not go that way. Many supporters of Bernie Sanders, considered to be a political outsider, believed that Hilary Clinton would best him solely on the basis of superdelegates. Senator Sanders has done remarkably well in his campaign; but at this point (with several primaries to go as of this writing) it looks like Ms. Clinton will be able to boast not only the support of her long time political allies also the record of receiving the most votes as well.
The Republicans do not use superdelegates. They have their own system of tempering the results of the primaries and caucuses with the “seasoned wisdom” of party officials. Perhaps no other election in history will call those forces together as this one. The Republican establishment is doing whatever they can to keep Donald Trump from winning the nomination. They fear him for a couple of reasons. To begin with, most polls show that if he were the candidate facing the Democrats he would lose. But even if he won the party is concerned that his method of governance would be an embarrassment that would do great harm to the party members down the line. The strategy they are using is to keep Mr. Trump from walking into the convention with less than the required number of delegates to secure the nomination hands down. If they can do that then delegates can start throwing other names into the ring and choosing from those. The problem there is that The Donald doesn’t like playing games he can’t win. It is predicted that if this happens he’ll claim that the system is rigged (something he’s said several times) and will leave the convention to start a 3rd party candidacy. This will assure the Democrats a victory; not only in the White House but for many Senate and House seats as well.
Stay tuned. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. But for political junkies, an exciting one.
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