Reinterpreting Bihar’s Verdict : Part 2
- In Politics
- 09:37 AM, Nov 25, 2015
- Shashank Davanagere
Authors Acknowledgment: This article is mostly an amalgamation of thoughts put forward by “hopewinsjunior” on various blogs and forums. I have used the arguments that s/he has put forward to form a narrative of the Bihar elections. I hope that this interpretation of data will result in learning the correct lessons for both BJP and right wingers, instead of incorrectly calling it a ‘debacle’ and thus altering the fundamentals of BJP.
In the last part (https://www.myind.net/reinterpreting-bihar%E2%80%99s-verdict-part-1) we saw the story from vote share perspective. In this part we’ll gaze through a crystal ball to see how this may play in the next major election – Uttar Pradesh, how MGB’s Sarkar may play in Bihar, and how BJP can win Bihar next time around. But before we go there we’ll see how Nitish v 1.0 (with NDA) will fare against Nitish v 2.0 (with Lalu).
Nitish with NDA vs Nitish with MGB
In 2005, Advani and Nitish made an arrangement of seat-sharing that gave Nitish 58% of the 243 seats (i.e. Senior Partner) and kept only 42% of the 243 seats for the BJP (i.e. Junior Partner). This made sense in 2005, because BJP was still relatively weak in Bihar at the time [15% VS in 2000 elections].
By 2010, however, the BJP organization had grown in Bihar and the local cadre began to push for an increased seat-share. The local BJP suggested a 50:50 seat sharing arrangement with JDU with the understanding the CM chair to go to that party which won the most seats. This proposal was a direct threat to Nitish continuing as the NDA chief minister in Bihar. It was Advani who rejected this push and over-ruled the local BJP because he wanted Nitish to continue as the single center of power in the NDA government in Bihar.
Just as the media built up a negative aura around Modi as a pariah, they have built up a positive aura around Nitish as a messiah whom they would like to see as the next PM. The media portrays Nitish Kumar as "sushasan babu", the man who brought law & order to Bihar, built infrastructure, roads, schools and launched programs for the underprivileged.
But this image needs deeper examination. How did Nitish Kumar manage to provide this "good government"?
Upon close examination, it appears that the answer to this question lies in his personal equation with Vajpayee and Advani, who loved him and treated him as a favorite son. It was their unconditional support to him as CM that allowed him to create the "single-power-center" arrangement that is essential for good government anywhere. Advani's instructions to Sushil Modi & the other BJP ministers was to fully co-operate with Nitish; that was the key to the good government under Nitish as CM. If Nitish had any problems with any of the BJP ministers, he would simply call Advani and the matter would be quickly settled per Nitish's wishes. If Nitish found any BJP ministers indulging in questionable activities, he would again call Advani and Advani would immediately settle the matter. This was a very unusual situation that arose from the special relationship Nitish had built with Advani & Vajpayee from his days as a junior minister in their central cabinet.
In other words, Nitish continuing as CM was completely and totally dependent upon Advani continuing as the undisputed BJP leader. Once Advani was effectively pushed out in 2013 by the elevation of Modi against his wishes, Nitish saw the writing on the wall. There is no way BJP would have allowed him to remain CM (and allowed JDU to remain the senior partner) after the 2015 election even if he had stayed in the NDA.
When all things are considered, it is obvious that the corruption-free and efficient government of Nitish Kumar, which the media has been touting, was merely a by-product of his high-level contacts in the BJP. Without the BJP, Nitish's own small party would have had neither the talent, nor the organizational strength, nor the will to deliver an honest and functioning government. The media has overlooked the Advani factor and has hence mistaken the "sushasan" for a personal achievement of Nitish Kumar as if he were one single individual who was running the whole Bihar government in the form of one-party rule.
Given that he can never become CM again, power is only a secondary personal desire for Lalu today. His burning deep personal desire today is revenge. He bitterly remembers what Nitish did to him and is merely looking for the right opportunity to pay Nitish back with interest.
Here is a brief overview of what Nitish did to Lalu:
- Nitish stole Lalu's social base. Nitish's own social base is at best the 4-5% Kurmi-Koeri, whereas Lalu had the large social base of Yadavs (15%), minorities (15%) and other backward castes (50%) as the original charismatic Mandal leader in Bihar.
- Nitish deliberately broke up Lalu's social base, such that extreme-OBCs, mahadalits were separated from Lalu. Even Lalu's minority base was broken-up by creating a pasmanda minority as a specific Nitish vote-bank. Nitish effectively cornered Lalu into being portrayed as the leader of the Yadavs and upper-caste Ashraf Muslims only.
- Nitish arrested and jailed many of Lalu's associates, thereby isolating Lalu from the street-power he relied on to make his network function.
- Nitish finally hounded Lalu through the legal system until Lalu was convicted, put in jail and got him barred from standing for elections. He humiliated Lalu by making a public spectacle of Lalu's jailing and repeatedly calling him 'chara chor' in public.
So here is what Lalu is now planning for Nitish in return (compare with points above):
- Lalu will steal Nitish's social base. Nitish's own social base is at best the 4-5% Kurmi-Koeri, and Lalu will work hard to ensure that the Kurmi-Koeris are all that Nitish is left with. Lalu will then deliberately break up Nitish's social base, such that some of the extreme-OBCs & mahadalits who may be anti-Lalu will be driven to the NDA, while the minorities & some of the larger OBCs will be drawn towards the RJD.
- Lalu will make sure that Nitish fails at everything he does; Lalu will specifically order his associates to create chaos in order to make Nitish look incompetent.
- Lalu will withdraw all RJD cadre support from Nitish, thereby isolating him from street-power. Given that JDU never had a good cadre and always depended on the BJP cadre during his years with the NDA, Nitish will be completely helpless without any strength on the ground.
- Lalu will finally hound Nitish through the political process, playing a cat and mouse game, until Nitish is finally pushed out of the CM-chair. Given that all of Nitish's machinations were about that CM-chair, Lalu will find the greatest joy in pulling him out of that chair and flinging him to the ground. After that, as a final humiliation, Lalu will take his current 80 legislators, add the 24 legislators he will steal from Nitish and propose a RJD-Congress (80+24+27) government without Nitish. In this final coup, Lalu will make sure that the humiliation of Nitish is public by making it into a TV-spectacle. Lalu is burning with the desire for revenge and he will not settle for anything less than this.
Given the above points, the following gives us an idea on how nitish worked with NDA vs how MGB will probably work:
- When Nitish becomes CM again, he will find that his key support-source has now shifted from Advani to Lalu. Advani was an honest man, who was particular about the maintenance of law & order, and loved Nitish like a son. Lalu is a corrupt man, who does care a lot about the maintenance of law & order, and hates Nitish as his arch-enemy.
- Previously, whenever he had a problem with coalition ministers from the BJP, he would simply call Advani and Advani would fulfill Nitish's wishes on the spot. Now, when he has a problem with coalition ministers from the RJD, he will have to call Lalu. Unlike Advani, Lalu will make him grovel for every little thing in order to humiliate him in front of Lalu's supporters, especially Yadavs who have a dislike for Nitish.
- Previously, Nitish had Advani to make sure that all the BJP ministers were clean and honest. Nitish had the power via Advani to dismiss any minister or bureaucrat who either did not perform or was indulging in controversial activities. Now, there is almost no chance that his cabinet will be free from people known to be corrupt; in addition, it will be impossible for him to maintain discipline because Lalu would never grant him the power to transfer or fire any minister or bureaucrat on his own.
- Previously, Advani had worked to ensure that there would be no alternative center of power to Nitish. Sushil Modi was issued firm instructions to work only in an assistive role with Nitish and not challenge his authority. Now, it is certain that an alternative center of power will be established reporting directly to Lalu. Now, there will effectively be two governments, with Lalu's ministers constantly challenging Nitish and hampering his freedom.
In summary, then, contrary to the media portrayal of Nitish's return as CM as the embodiment of the victory of "sushasan", Nitish is now trapped in a quagmire of unreasonable and unworkable political arrangements. In order to retain the CM-chair, Nitish made a deal with the Devil; now the time has come for the Devil to ask for something in return.
As for keeping BJP out of power, Lalu knows that the BJP is going to come back to power next time anyway because Congress and Nitish are both in sustained decline. So he doesn't care if BJP wins the next election, because his sons can always come back in the elections after that. What Lalu really wants is to isolate, humiliate and throw Nitish into the street when he crowns his sons are the new Kings of Bihar. This is precisely what he going to do. It will be brutal for poor Nitish.
Upcoming UP elections
“Strategists” and media heads have already started talking about how this “formula” can be repeated in UP and other states. This is ludicrous, because this "consolidated opposition" is not possible in any other place. The unique feature of the Bihar election was that one of the long-time NDA allies of the BJP, namely JDU, switched sides and joined the UPA (Congress & Lalu). This is something unique and not really possible in any other state. Here is the situation in UP (where a grand alliance of Janata Parivar & Congress, namely SP, RLD and Congress is certainly possible)
(I) The case of BIHAR
Bihar State Elections 2005
(a) BJP: 15% (b) JDU: 21% (c) RJD: 24% (d) Congress: 6% (e) OTHERS: 34%
Bihar State Elections 2010
(a) BJP: 16% (b) JDU: 23% (c) RJD: 18% (d) Congress: 8% (e) OTHERS: 35%
Bihar National Elections 2014
(a) BJP: 29% (b) JDU: 16% (c) RJD: 18% (d) Congress: 8% (e) OTHERS: 29%
Bihar State Elections 2015
(a) BJP: 25% (b) JDU: 16% (c) RJD: 18% (d) Congress: 7% (e) OTHERS: 34%
(II) The case of UTTAR PRADESH
UP State Elections 2007
(a) BJP: 17% (b) SP: 26% (c) BSP: 30% (d) Congress: 8% (e) RLD: 4% (f) OTHERS: 15%
UP State Elections 2012
(a) BJP: 15% (b) SP: 30% (c) BSP: 26% (d) Congress: 13% (e) RLD: 2% (f) OTHERS: 14%
UP National Elections 2014
(a) BJP: 42% (b) SP: 23% (c) BSP: 20% (d) Congress: 8% (e) RLD: 1% (f) OTHERS: 6%
UP State Elections 2017 <----PROJECTION---->
(a) BJP: 32% (b) SP: 23% (c) BSP: 20% (d) Congress: 8% (e) RLD: 2% (f) OTHERS: 15%
From the above data it is obvious that:
- If there are no new alliances and it becomes a 4-cornered fight between BJP, SP, BSP & Congress-RLD (same as in the 2014 national election), then BJP will sweep the UP state-election of 2017.
- However, if SP makes an arrangement with Congress & RLD form a GRAND ALLIANCE, then it will be a close fight between BJP & the Grand Alliance, with a total wipe-out of Mayawati's BSP.
- If BJP responds to the Grand Alliance in (2) by making an arrangement with Mayawati's BSP, then the BJP-BSP alliance will sweep the UP state-election of 2017 and there will be a total wipe-out of Mulayam's SP.
- Given that Mayawati's BSP comes from the original Dalit-party tradition and not from the newer Mandal tradition as SP, it is almost inconceivable that SP & BSP can form an alliance. It should be noted that Mayawati's core voters (SCs) are the ones who suffer the most when law & order breaks down under Yadav-dominated SP rule.
- Mayawati’s core voters are SCs with a chunk of forward-castes, whereas BJP core voters are forward-castes, with a chunk of non-Yadav OBCs and a chunk of non-Jatav SCs. This makes a BJP-BSP alliance more compatible than a SP-BSP alliance.
Additionally, it is prudent to note that:
- In Bihar, Nitish personally had no anti-incumbency against him. In UP, however, there is now considerable anti-incumbency against Akhilesh because of deterioration in law & order.
- In Bihar, Nitish was re-elected along with NDA in 2010 due to a significant improvement in governance from 2005 to 2010. In UP, however, Akhilesh was able to get a majority in 2012 because he was sold as the "new hope" who, because of his "modern Australian education" would "transform" the state. This was a gamble the voters took and they now feel that it has failed, as his powerful "uncles" have taken over the government and multiple power centers have caused a break down in law & order.
- In Bihar, the two main local players, Nitish & Lalu were once part of the same Janata Dal. Therefore, despite their differences, a re-combination was still possible because a lot of JDU legislators were actually ex-RJD people. In UP however, the two main local players, Mayawati & Yadav-family are from completely different traditions. Mayawati is from the Ambedkar-Dalit (SC) tradition, while Akhilesh is from the Janata parivar's Mandalite (OBC) tradition.
- In Bihar, Nitish-JDU had no choice but to join the UPA, because they had just violently broken-off from the NDA. In UP however, Mayawati has no such compulsion. BJP has backed her before as CM and she still has a better working relationship with the BJP than with the SP. She knows that she will get a better "deal" from the BJP if she allies with them than if she allies with the SP.
- The Grand Alliance is nothing more than a combination of the Janata Parivar (RJD, JDU, SP, RLD, INLD, JDS et cetera) and the Congress-UPA. Mayawati is not a part of this large grouping and she knows she (and her party) will become sidelined & irrelevant if she joins it.
- The biggest sufferers and loudest complainers about the deterioration of law & order under current SP rule in UP are the SCs. These angry SCs are a significant part of the anti-incumbency feeling against Akhilesh today. Mayawati cannot risk alienating their feelings by joining hands with the very party against which there is such strong anti-incumbency feeling.
Therefore, the Grand Alliance in UP will be SP-Congress-RLD. Mayawati& her BSP will either contest alone or in alliance with the BJP-NDA. Mayawati will not commit suicide by joining the Grand Alliance and making herself irrelevant just to spite Modi, against whom (unlike Nitish) she has no personal problems. From all of the above, we can conclude that the Bihar formula of a grand alliance against the BJP will be very difficult to repeat in UP.
Actual Lessons
- The BJP has done well and managed to permanently increase its vote-base to become the largest party by vote-share.
- All it needs to do now is to let nature take its own course and wait for the Lalu-Nitish contradictions to emerge.
- Once the old-issues of Yadav-domination, rising corruption and criminal-activity starts to anger JDU's SC & E-OBC voters, BJP should step in to lure them away from Nitish and add them permanently to its own vote-base [Notes 2].
- The fact that Nitish will be CM despite have fewer votes & fewer seats than Lalu implies that the cabinet will be OVER-STUFFED with RJD people to compensate. This will naturally anger JDU veterans who will necessarily need to be side-lined to make room for Lalu's boys. The BJP should exploit this disgruntlement amongst JDU members and attract any talent they can find.
Conclusion
Debacles in elections certainly provide a learning opportunity and a chance for course-correction and introspection. However, this does not apply in this case, because there WAS NO DEBACLE in this Bihar election.
Even though the BJP/NDA may have not won many seats, this election has been a HUGE success for the BJP. For the first time in the history of Bihar, more people have voted for the BJP than any other party in a STATE-election. Instead of obsessing about the seats, people should look at the underlying vote-shares because they tell us a lot about long-term trends.
Comparing the vote-share of the 2010, 2014 & 2015 elections, we can tell that 7% of the vote-share has shifted PERMANENTLY from the JDU to the BJP. This 7% vote-share is composed of anti-Lalu voters. They moved from the JDU to the BJP during the 2014 elections because they wanted to see Modi as PM. They have now become a permanent part of the BJP vote bank as a component of its anti-Lalu social-base.
This is an excellent achievement, because it means that the 25% (up 9% from 2010) vote-share of the BJP is a permanent increase and that the 16% (down 7% from 2010) vote-share of the JDU is a permanent decrease.
If Lalu's associates, who are now very 'hungry' because they have been deprived of political power for 10 long years, start creating alternate centers of power, then a breakdown in law & order will almost certainly follow. Given that these voters have been NDA voters in the past, there is a good chance that the BJP may be able to attract some of them and grab maybe 5% of that share. This would automatically take the BJP up to 30% vote-share and bring Nitish-JDU down to 11% vote-share. If this happens, then the WHOLE SITUATION CHANGES like this---
State-election 2015 results:
(a) BJP: 25% LJP++: 10%, NDA: 35%
(b) JDU: 16% RJD: 18% Congress: 8%, Grand Alliance: 41%
(c) Others: 24%
Future POTENTIAL election results if "jungle-raj" returns:
(a) BJP: 30% LJP++: 10%, NDA: 40%
(b) JDU: 11% RJD: 18% Congress: 8%, Grand Alliance: 36%
(c) Others: 24%
Therefore, if BJP can take 5% vote-share (SCs & E-OBCs) away from JDU in the event Nitish cannot live up to his image as "sushasan babu" in the company of Lalu & his associates, then the NDA can SWEEP the next elections via the anti-incumbency effect.
All of this has NOTHING whatsoever to do with the pace of Modi's economic reforms, or the beef controversy, or Bhagwat's reservation-statement, or the stupid outbursts of the motor-mouths, or the 'rise in intolerance', or the presence of 'baharis', or the absence of a CM-candidate, or any of these superficial points.
Appendix
Notes 1:
Here is the approximate BREAK-UP of to which party these caste-wise votes actually belong by affiliation:
(A) NDA (35%)
(1) Forward caste: 10%
(2) Yadav: 1%
(3) Kurmi-Koeri: 0%
(4) Minorities: 1%
(5) SC: 9%
(6) Extreme-OBC: 14%
(B) Grand Alliance (41%)
(1) Forward caste: 2%
(2) Yadav: 12%
(3) Kurmi-Koeri: 4%
(4) Minorities: 13%
(5) SC: 4%
(6) Extreme-OBC: 6%
(C) OTHERS (24%)
(1) Forward caste: 3%
(2) Yadav: 2%
(3) Kurmi-Koeri: 1%
(4) Minorities: 1%
(5) SC: 7%
(6) Extreme-OBC: 10%
Notes 2:
RJD-JDU-Congress: 15% Yadav, 15% Minorities, 5% Kurmi-Koeri
BJP: 15% forward caste.
Now this social base accounts for 50% of the population. So the contest is for the other 50% of the population in which roughly 20% are SC and 30% are E-OBC (i.e. non-Yadav, non-Kurmi OBCs).
We know that the Grand Alliance got 41% of the vote. This means that they expanded by only 6% from the strength of their core social-base.
We know that the BJP got 25% of the vote. This means that the BJP expanded by 10% from the strength of its core social-base.
We know that the NDA got 35% of the vote. This means that the NDA expanded by 20% from the strength of BJP's core social base.
The ONLY way this is possible is if SCs and E-OBCs (i.e. non-Yadav, non-Kurmi OBCs), who make up the other 50% of the population, voted for the BJP and the NDA in MUCH HIGHER proportion than they voted for the MGB.
The polarization can be gauged by the very small representation of forward-castes, Yadav’s, Kurmis & minorities in the "OTHERS" category. This implies that the SC & Extreme-OBC communities were not as polarized as they voted for independents and other smaller parties in some numbers as well. It can be derived from [Note 1] the voting patterns that the SC & E-OBC communities disproportionately voted *FOR* the NDA.
Approximately 65% of the E-OBC voters who voted for the Grand Alliance were Nitish-voters. Approximately 50% of the SC voters who voted for the Grand Alliance were again Nitish-voters. These are the voters Nitish stands to lose to BJP if Lalu's associates make him lose control over the law & order situation in the next few years. And all BJP needs is an additional 5% to sweep Bihar.
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