The Road to 2019. Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance based on the five key segments in BJP's manifesto- Part 1
- In Politics
- 07:37 PM, Dec 23, 2018
- Vishwanath
Politics aside, I thought it would make sense to start this with data & statistics.
But before we begin. Who would be interested in this? The farmer? Ambanis? Adanis? Or people like you and me? Let’s reserve the answer for later…
BJP’s manifesto in 2014 for a lot of you who haven’t seen it is split into 5 big segments:
- Attend the imminent
- Strengthen the framework
- Reform the system
- Widen the platform
- Leap forward
Attend the Imminent (Focus for this week)
- Price Rise: We can always get into the cacophony of “What about Petrol price today or what about Tomatoes, Potatoes or Onions” lets stick to the yardstick that’s accepted across the board. Inflation. While inheriting an average inflation rate of ~ 9%, the govt seems to have moved the right levers to bring and reign it at ~ 4% and ensured the price stability is maintained. One can squirm that this is above central bank's medium-term target of 4 percent for nine consecutive months, but the chart below should be an indicator of comparative performance.
- Employment and Entrepreneurship: The government has done a lot in this segment but its obviously a raw nerve and a lot more can be done. One thing is clear. The methodology to compute the jobs created needs to be calibrated.
If our economy is one of the fastest growing, infrastructure projects are being executed (this is tangible and cannot be challenged), then obviously its being done by real people who are being paid to work. As an example, the # of mobile manufacturing units has gone up from 2 to 120 (between 2014 and now) and it has people working in it. Similarly, the PMMY has given 13 crore loans which in turn would have created multiple jobs. There is clear intent from the government, but the question is… Are we having more # of youth coming into this segment due to the shift in demography that is playing against the government and if yes, did the government not take that into account… Overall, the government needs to think about this and work on countering the chorus of “no jobs”.
- Corruption & Black Money: A metric where this government (top tier) stands clean is surely corruption (Looks like Rafale has also bombed in the congress backyard now).
One must understand that the bureaucracy is not easy to handle or change… and its this layer that Modi government has been battling most. The goofups by this layer has costed Modi and his government as far as perception is concerned…example: Implementation of Demo and GST, escape of Mallaya, Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi.
Let’s see where they have done well.
Demo has led to widening the tax base, identifying lakhs of shell firms, bringing high value properties under scanner, decline of cash to GDP ratio, identification of suspicious transactions. Each of these has worked in countering micro level corruption.Similarly, GST has led to higher tax compliance and control on black money circulation as the system normally followed by traders and shopkeepers will be put to a mandatory check.
Transparency International says India’s score has been increasing consistently and 2018 should be no different.
The work on bringing back all the black money is pending and can be clearly seen as a gap.
Finally, if the argument is “But the cop at the traffic light still asks for a bribe”, then you are right, Singapore was not built in 4 years. This government has shown (after 10 years of corruption laden UPA) that a country can be run with decisions made minus scams. None of the congress allegations have stuck. Let that be known.
As for the escape artists, we are seeing the government’s efforts in bringing back all of them. Arthur road jail is almost ready to meet Mallaya. Bringing all of them back will help bring the shine back.
Decision, Policy Paralysis & Delivery: If there is one term Modi and his team have killed, its policy paralysis. Not just announcing big schemes but to execute them like a corporate has been the hallmark. Right from
- Jan Dhan Yojana – 31 Million accounts with Rs. 792 Billion deposited
- Digital India – Digital transactions up by 207% since 2016 valuing to USD 2.8 Trillion as of Aug 2018
- Make in India – 79 contracts valuing Rs. 1.28 Trillion signed up
- Awas Yojana – ~ 8.5 lakh houses have been completed in Sep ’18 (15%). This is not going at a desired pace but given has started to touch many at the bottom of the pyramid.
- Ujjwala Yojana – 3.5 crore free gas connections given to the poor. Again, touching the core.
- Village Electrification – As of 28th April 2018, the government claimed that 100% of India’s villages have access to electricity. The nay Sayers need to understand the metrics before countering this feat.
- We spoke about demonetization & GST.
Bottom line: A lot has been done and lot to do. Expecting everything to change in 5 years would be stupidity (this goes for both the supporters and the detractors). Potholes dug for 70 years are being filled and this is going to be a long journey.
So, who should be interested in the above data? Poor, middle class folks like you and me or the Ambanis? I think everyone… given there is enough done for all sectors.
Disclaimer: This is not a comprehensive list of achievements.
Data Sources:
Inflation data from https://www.statista.com/statistics/271322/inflation-rate-in-india/
Unemployment data from https://tradingeconomics.com/india/unemployment-rate
Make in India https://www.janes.com/article/77699/india-reveals-make-in-india-statistics
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