The question everybody is asking is if the world politics is on the crossroads? Certain events and activities that I list and discuss in a bit here certainly point towards current world order being in flux.
The events are as follows : 1. The alleged Putin interference in the US Presidential election that saw Donald Trump defeating career politician and darling of Media – Hillary Clinton.
2. The standoff between China and its South-East Pacific neighbors over ownership of South China Sea- one of the world’s busiest shipping route and rich in natural gas and oil
3. The dreaded ISIS terror outfit which has overtaken earlier record of brutality against human beings, and its area of influence spreading like wild-fire to Europe and Asia from its present epicenters Syria and Iraq.
Since WW-II, which was followed by Cold War, the United States of America has been the world leader not only by virtue of its size in population and geography but also its wealth and technological innovation which helped it to generate 40% of world’s total investable capital and 60% of technology respectively. Yes erstwhile Communist ruled Soviet bloc had resisted the US leadership, and due to this there were skirmishes here and there causing immense pain to population spread all over the world, from Korean peninsula in Soviet backyard to Indian sub-continent and to Central America. Notwithstanding, the liberal democracy triumphed over dictatorial communist rule with collapse of Soviet bloc under the leadership of pro-democratic USSR’s President Gorbachev in late 1980s.
After the advent of Vladimir Putin as the powerful man of Russia, it seems Russia has been working to occupy the pre-Cold War era- USSR position, with the objective of trying to capture allies though with little success so far. Now as per the latest media reports, it is understood that Putin helped Donald Trump defeat Clinton in just concluded US Presidential election. If this is true, this is certainly not a good sign. With the help of Trump will Putin consolidate his position on global high table? There are lot of apprehensions about Putin becoming more powerful than he already is
Coming to South China Sea standoff, it is unfortunate that China is constantly disregarding International Law. China has world’s largest population, and now, it has earned the status of second richest nation in the world overtaking its ocean born neighbor Japan. This has changed the power structure in the region in favor of China. And many analysts are estimating that China shall overtake the US as the world richest nation within 13 years from now that is by 2030. Now, if the present scenario continues by 2030 China shall not only be a threat to South China Sea littoral nations apart from other smaller neighboring nations in its northern and southern borders but also to the whole world like Stalin’s USSR.
Last but not the least is the spread of dreaded fundamentalist virus ISIS. It is spreading like wild fire into Europe, the heaven of democracy and social liberalism, which was since WW-II the most peaceful in the world. ISIS havoc is witnessed in Arab World, Central and North Africa and South Asia. Yes, the Islamic fundamentalism has been around since its inception, but the present peak has its roots in Cold War era super power rivalry. Islamic fundamentalism’s early epicenter is Pakistan where Islamic fundamentalism was promoted by the USA to fight USSR invasion of Afghanistan in late 1970s.This was followed by the US invasion of Iraq to overthrow anti-West dictator Saddam Hussein in 2000s. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein was a greatest strategic mistake of the powerful West. In the future, the West coalition might be successful in suppressing ISIS in Arab World by putting superior war gears in ISIS held geography. But the virus which was allowed to spread to Europe along with Arab Refugees wouldn’t be so easily defeated.
Putin and China’s ambition to dominate the world politics will contribute to the great extent to the spread of dreaded fundamentalist Islam. Inexperienced Trump might help facilitate as a reward for his friendship with Putin which will then add fuel and will endanger the peace in the world. When that happens, no one will be safe.