MAHARASHTRA

Among the 48 constituencies of Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine had won 41 seats while the rivals Congress and NCP bagged only 2 and 4 seats respectively.

The Congress is contesting on 25 seats, while the NCP on 19 seats, leaving 4 seats with allies. No surprises that despite four years of bickering, both BJP (25 seats) and Shiv Sena (23 seats) are again contesting jointly.

In Maharashtra, National security and steps against terrorism are the most critical issues in the urban areas, but in rural and tribal areas the people are more concerned about their basic needs. BJP is banking on its excellent groundwork both by the Central Govt as well as the local Fadnavis Govt.

The BJP-SS-Yuti is confident that change has happened and people are responding positively with an expectation that more good work will happen when they come back to power again.

In the second phase, the election was held on 10 seats on Thursday where PM Narendra Modi held several mega rallies. The one held in the NCP bastion Madha tells the mood of Maharashtra. Post Balakot, Maharashtra has completely modified.

On the one hand, the Congress party is claiming that the party is resurging in the state and harping on the unemployment issue which they claim is finding a lot of traction and they have got the DMK factor (sizeable section of Dalits, Muslims and Kunbi communities), working in their favor.

Surprisingly, both the Congress and NCP are also bracing departure of its top leaders to the ruling BJP.

The most embarrassing is that Congress's leader of opposition in the assembly, Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, is campaigning for BJP to build support for his son Sujay, who recently crossed over to BJP and is fielded from Ahmednagar. This move has sent shockwaves through Maharashtra politics.

The problem of Congress is plenty. One of them is that it does not have leaders known for their oratory skills even matching Devendra Fadnavis, forget Narendra Modi. The dearth is such that MNS chief Raj Thackeray is called to campaign for Congress chief Ashok Chavan in Nanded and Sushil Kumar Shinde in Solapur, which has all the chances to backfire.

It is also essential to watch out what impact will the alliance between Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), and Owaisi's AIMIM pose and to which alliance.

The alliance representing Dalits and Muslims is experimented for the first time and are contesting all the 48 LS seats. VBA is contesting 47 whereas, AIMIM is contesting only the minority-dominated Aurangabad.

Congress-NCP leaders are dubbing the VBA as the 'Team B' of NDA, "propped up" to gobble up their Dalit-Muslim support base. It is true that the entry of the VBA may see the Muslim votes get divided between the Congress and the VBA and is becoming a pain in the neck for the UPA alliance.

Overall, the picture is that the UPA alliance is hoping to reverse its abysmal non-performance of 2014, but there are no signs of it.

Let us focus on some key constituencies where the contest is close.

The VBA demonstrated its prowess in Aurangabad after Ambedkar and Owaisi addressed a massive public rally. But in a triangular fight, challenging the four-time MP and Shiv Sena stalwart Chandrakant Khaire is tough.

The Madha seat was won by NCP's Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil (former Deputy CM) whose son Ranjitsinh Mohite-Patil, joined BJP making it now tricky for NCP. Akola was won twice by Prakash Ambedkar in 1998 and 1999, and the BJP-Sena view the VBA as a challenge.

Ex-CM Ashok Chavan may hold his Nanded seat with difficulties, but it would be a daunting task for Congress to keep Hingoli. The Dindori constituency is also being closely watched where the BJP is fighting the battle to retain the seat against CPI (M) leader Jeeva Pandu Gavit by fielding an NCP turncoat  Bharti Pawar.

However, the most fascinating contest is reserved for Sharad Pawar's bastion Baramati. The winning margin of Supriya Sule fell from 3.5 lakhs in 2009 to mere 60,000 in 2014. BJP's campaign in Baramati has unnerved even Sharad Pawar. Anything can happen.

Prediction: BJP - 24, SS - 19, Cong - 3, NCP - 2

RAJASTHAN

Rajasthan, which is set to vote in the fourth and fifth phases on 29 April and 6 May, sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha. For the first time since 1989, Congress could not win even a single seat, and BJP won all 25 in the last parliamentary elections in 2014. The stakes are high as Congress with its allies won the Assembly Elections in December 2018, with a 0.5 % lead over BJP in terms of vote share.

While Congress did win the election, its performance was lackluster and stopped one short of the halfway mark. If the assembly results were to be extrapolated, BJP would have got 13 seats, and Congress 12. However, in the assembly election, we heard popular slogans like "Modi Tujhse Bair Nahin, Rani Teri Khair Nahin," explaining the anti-incumbency was against the state Govt. and not the Modi Govt. at the center.

It is interesting to note that in the assembly polls, BSP won 6 seats, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) 3 seats, and independents won 13 seats. 12 of the 13 independent MLAs elected have joined the Congress, and if induction is factored in, it increases the Congress vote share.

However, It is surprising that the Congress has decided to contest all seats in a state where caste also plays a crucial role, without any alliance hoping they will flock together. While the leading contenders in the state are BJP and Congress, smaller parties such as the BTP and BSP are likely to play spoilsport.

On the other hand, BJP has taken the Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) in NDA fold. Beniwal will contest from the Nagaur seat. The alliance is giving a strong advantage to the BJP in districts like Pali, Barmer, Jodhpur, and Ajmer, where has a have strong support.

Another very tall leader Kirodi Lal Meena has rejoined BJP after a decade. The face of Gujjar agitation, Kirori Singh Bainsla, has also joined the BJP and it may cause a massive blow to Congress. With these developments and unprecedented popularity of PM Modi in the state after Balakot, there is a clear difference from Assembly elections.

BJP may lose a bit of its hold compared to last LS election's 55% vote share, and Congress may witness a good jump over 2014 regain. BJP may not be able to maintain the streak of 2014 but still firmly maintains the pole position.

Prediction: BJP - 21, RLP - 1, Congress - 3.

You can read Part 1 of this series on Bihar here  part 2 on MP, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand here and part 3 here.