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Aug 14, 2025
Harsh Sinha & Dr. A. Adityanjee

Is the UK a Safe Haven for Economic Offenders and International Criminals?

Introduction The United Kingdom, which has for so long been marketing itself for its stable institutions, human rights guarantee, and rule of law, has also earned a notoriety as a haven for economic offenders, criminals, terror suspects and global fugitives. Conventional legal protections, a ponderous and secretive justice system of extradition, and underfunded diplomatic repatriations have enabled perpetrators like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi, and Lalit Modi to stay out of Indian reach for many years. Experts contend that "ambulance-chasing lawyers" take advantage of the UK's Human Rights Act, and secretive judicial or political judgments again delay extradition. Senior diplomacy under PM Modi, and new intelligence and justice agreements, seek to bridge these loopholes, but the system's structural momentum, offshore secrecy, and bilateral asymmetries remain intact. This brief article analyses these imperatives with expert insights, cross-national case studies, and strategic policy proposals. A case is made for deploying effective and coercive geo-economic diplomacy as India’s economy has surpassed the British economy and is galloping towards the third slot internationally in terms of nominal GDP by 2027. Historical Context The UK's open-handed human rights case law, especially when it comes to prison conditions and guarantees of a fair trial, has been used repeatedly as a legal haven for extradition fugitives. Courts habitually invoke ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights) Article 3- "no one shall be subjected to inhuman or degrading treatment," invoking such matters as overcrowding at Tihar Jail or risk of extortion in local custody. Sanjeev Chawla, Jatinder and Asha Rani Angurala, and Virkaran Awasty's cases were dismissed on such grounds Even if UK courts permit extraditions, as in the case of Vijay Mallya, the final implementation has been vetoed by executive discretion. PM Boris Johnson de facto employed a "political veto" on grounds not revealed. This up-in-your-face highhandedness by the UK authorities did not pass the smell test. This political catch-all further added to India's legal successes, complicating them. Recent Debate During a recent India Today's TV debate, ex-Foreign Secretary Kawal Sibal, criminal lawyer Tanvir Ahmed Mir, and a scholar from the University of London, Bourjin Wagmar examined why the UK seems permeable to fugitives. Wagmar attributed these extended exploits to systemic "obstruction of justice", spanning from opportunist lawyers to judicial excess and perverse application of the Human Rights Act and ECHR, itself the cause of extended exploits. He characterised the UK Home Office as "paralysed" in bilateral coordination, even with very close relationships with nations such as India, and even in platforms like the Quad Indo-Pacific strategy. Sibal inquired whether such diplomatic clout as defence or trade relationships are being bargained off for fugitive repatriation. The Vijay Mallya case illustrates domestic UK Machiavellian manoeuvres: while courts permitted extradition, the UK government, headed by then-PM Boris Johnson, used a "confidential" provision to delay the process, "secret," and "not for any foreign government to learn." Mir pointed out structural legal delay: repeated appeals, even to the European Court, drag cases out for years. He referred to Sanjay Bhandari (arms dealer), whose extradition was rejected on grounds of the possibility of hypothetical ill-treatment by Indian authorities in the Tihar jail, referring to instances such as Mallya, Nirav Modi, and others where India could actively provide undertakings, e.g., guaranteed bail, impartial and speedy trial to allay UK courts' apprehensions. Wagmar concurred that India, being the "world's largest democracy," can point to instances, such as the trial of Ajmal Kasab or India's legal safeguards, to assure the UK that extradited persons are not mistreated. Sibal replied that India frequently seems to be in a defensive mode, needlessly downplaying its legal strength. He also pointed to bias in presuming Indian legal delays are unusual; the UK's own are notoriously sluggish. But the greatest obstacle, he declared, depends on a political secret and lack of will by those in government above judicial endorsements, as in Mallya's instance: proposing intent to maintain the UK's attraction for such persons. Case Studies of High-Profile Fugitives from India in the UK Name Charges & Allegations Status in the UK Vijay Mallya Loan defaults (~₹9,000–₹14,000 crore), money laundering Appeals rejected in 2020, but extradition stalled due to a “confidential” impediment Nirav Modi $2B PNB fraud, money laundering Extradition cleared by courts, Home Secretary signed in 2021, but delayed by a “confidential impediment”; bail denied eight consecutive times Lalit Modi Money laundering and FEMA violations (~₹1,700 crore) Extradition in progress; status remains unresolved Ravi Shankaran War-room leak, espionage Extradition rejected by UK High Court due to lack of prima facie case; India’s CBI missed appeal deadline Virkaran Awasty Rice scandal, financial fraud Extradition refused, citing conditions in Tihar Jail and abuse of legal process (Bhandari precedent) Apart from India, other international offenders, ranging from terrorism-linked individuals to white-collar criminals, have similarly used such legal tools and protections to evade extradition. India's Extradition Challenges & Diplomatic Strategy 1. Extradition Treaty Landscape India signed an extradition treaty with the UK in 1992 (effective 1993). Despite this longstanding legal framework, the return rate has been low; only about one in three fugitives globally are repatriated. 2. Institutional & Procedural Weakness Experts and policy experts have noted problems in India's extradition process: delays in documentation, inadequate prima facie evidence filings, substandard diplomatic follow-through, and failure to make timely arrests. Exhortations have been made to revamp extradition treaties, improve India's prison facilities, and issue formal assurances of humane treatment to host courts 3. Expert Voices: Indian Strategic Perspectives Indian analysts have been consistent in their argument that strategic congruence with Western standards of law, enhanced diplomatic coordination, and mutual transparency are essential to justify India's extradition power. They emphasise mutual trust-building and congruence of norms to minimise legal friction. Strategic Cooperation: Turning the Tide 1 India–UK Diplomacy In the PM Modi's July 2025 UK visit, both nations signed a framework for deeper cooperation on extradition, intelligence, and organised crime: backed by CBI–NCA relations 2. Policy Leverage Diplomatic leverage: like tying extradition cooperation to larger geo-economic and geo-political cooperation (trade, security, Indo-Pacific cooperation)—could pressure movement. 3. Legal Reforms & Procedural Safeguards India may speed up its extradition appeals by: Extending ironclad guarantees (custody conditions, equitable trial, bail procedures) to meet UK human rights issues 4. Fast-tracking Indian legal processes; reducing delays, causing UK courts to suspect. Presenting official diplomatic notes with weight of evidence and binding guarantees, rather than unsubstantiated assurances. Policy Recommendations 1 Proactive Legal Assurances For individuals like Mallya or Nirav Modi, Indian authorities should present formal affidavits guaranteeing bail, humane imprisonment, and an unbiased trial in advance to pre-empt UK legal objections. Make extradition forward movement an equal goal alongside trade, security, and Indo-Pacific partnership; use multilateral summits and defence pacts as negotiating platforms. 2 Institutional Coordination Create a dedicated India–UK Extradition Task Force with CBI, ED, Ministry of External Affairs, and NCA to follow up on cases, monitor backlogs, and share intelligence in real-time. Moreover, Reform India's prison establishments; create documents that address UK human rights concerns. Make extradition dossiers meticulous, prompt, and include legal and humanitarian grounds. 3 Public Messaging & Soft Power Utilise incidents like 26/11 designated terrorist Ajmal Kasab to underscore India's fair process, disconnect the Indian justice system from global stereotypes, and reshape global opinion. Also, updating extradition treaties to include fast-track time-bound mechanisms where dual criminality and evidence are established; reducing multi-tier appeals. 4 Calling Out the UK’s Constitutional Anomalies: India needs to put pressure on the UK government to codify its constitution, as it lacks one, unlike all the major liberal democracies. A nation lacking a written constitution cannot boast of constitutional guarantees. The perennial and entrenched habit of shifting goalposts on one pretext or the other must be called out vehemently. 5 Use of coercive Economic diplomacy India displaced the UK as the fifth leading nation in terms of nominal GDP last year and has now surpassed even Japan to become the 4th largest economy in 2025. The UK has lost market access to the EU after Brexit and is looking elsewhere, including India, for alternative markets. The recent signing of a bilateral free trade and economic partnership agreement between India and the UK presents India with an opportunity to use coercive economic diplomacy and make market access conditional on the UK’s vacillating behaviours in upholding the bilateral extradition treaty. Conclusions In conclusion, the UK's reputation as an "economic crimes haven" remains based on legal realism: institutional human rights protection, delayed and incomplete extradition processes, and the occasional political override. The UK is no longer perceived as a law-abiding nation that follows a Rules-based international order. UK‘s perceived sympathy for terrorists and economic offenders has been noted. Future trust in the UK’s ability to deliver on signed international agreements is in serious doubt. There seems to be a hidden imperialistic and quasi-racist attitude in those governing the UK, as they perceive the Indian judiciary to be less than fair and every criminal being subject to extortion and human rights violations, a euphemism for diplomatic arrogance. Nevertheless, India has made decisive strategic shifts, bilateral agreements, stronger legal filings, and diplomatic initiatives that can tip the balance. Expert insight, such as that of the India Today debate, reveals both the weaknesses and the realms where India can be a proactive player. A balanced mix of legal assurance, institutional reform, and deft and effective economic diplomacy presents India's best chance to turn perception into productive dividends and extradite these criminals expeditiously. The onus ultimately lies on the UK authorities to rebrand the UK not as a refuge for criminals, but as an international partner in upholding justice in good faith. References Business Standard. (2025, July 24). India seeks UK cooperation to bring economic offenders to justice. Devdiscourse. (2025, July 24). India and UK join forces in the extradition of economic offenders. The Economic Times. (2020, October 9). Secret extradition proceedings going on to bring Vijay Mallya: Centre to SC. The Economic Times. (2025, May 18). UK judge notes ‘confidential impediment’ in Nirav Modi extradition case. The Economic Times. (2025, July 23). India and UK working on legal scrubbing, other work for FTA: FS Misri. The Financial Express. (2025, May 18). London court cites ‘confidential impediment’ in Nirav Modi extradition proceedings. The Hindu. (2020, October 9). Secret legal matter holding up Vijay Mallya’s extradition: U.K. The Hindu. (2020, November 10). Vijay Mallya extradition delayed over ‘confidential’ proceedings: U.K. envoy. Hindustan Times. (2020, June 4). ‘Confidential’ legal issue has to be resolved for Vijay Mallya’s extradition, says UK. The Indian Express. (2020, June 4). UK says ‘confidential’ legal issue needs to be resolved before Vijay Mallya’s extradition. Live Law. (2025, February 5). Vijay Mallya says banks recovered ₹14,131.60 crore—more than double the adjudicated debt; moves Karnataka HC. NDTV. (2020, June 4). On Vijay Mallya’s extradition, UK government’s statement hints at hurdle. Reuters. (2024, July 26). India’s markets regulator bars tycoon Vijay Mallya from securities trading for 3 years. Reuters. (2025, April 9). Tycoon Vijay Mallya loses appeal against UK bankruptcy order. Times of India. (2025, May 18). UK judge flagged ‘confidential impediment’ blocking Nirav Modi’s extradition to India. Tirkey, A. (2023, August 21). India’s challenges in extraditing fugitives from foreign countries (Issue Brief No. 270). Observer Research Foundation.

Aug 14, 2025
Viren S Doshi

Pakistan: The Rogue Jihadi Terror State and Its Nuclear Threats – Global Imperatives

Overview On August 11, 2025, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, “Field Marshal” Syed Asim Munir, issued a reckless and chilling nuclear threat during a private dinner in Tampa, Florida, US, hosted for the Pakistani diaspora. No official notes or videos were made available, but the media constructed the speech from talks with some of the 120 participants who attended this private event. Mobile phones were not allowed in this event. Speaking on the 80th anniversary of the United States’ atomic bombing of Nagasaki, Munir declared, “We are a nuclear nation. If we think we are going down, we’ll take half the world down with us.” He further threatened to destroy Indian dams with “10 missiles” in retaliation for India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. These remarks underscore Pakistan’s dangerous posture as a rogue jihadi terror regime in South Asia, wielding a nuclear arsenal acquired through dubious means and now in dubious hands. Reports also indicate Munir threatened to target Reliance's Jamnagar refinery in India, escalating his provocative rhetoric. Backdrop of Munir’s Threats Munir’s statements come amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions, triggered by the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir. The attack, executed by heavily armed militants linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and its proxy, The Resistance Front (TRF), resulted in the deaths of 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen, with over 20 others injured. The militants targeted Hindu tourists and a Christian tourist, marking it as one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. India’s nationalist government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, responded decisively, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and launching Operation Sindoor, a military strike targeting terrorist camps in Pakistan, including sites near Kairana Hills linked to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Munir’s nuclear sabre-rattling appears calculated to exploit a warming of United States-Pakistan ties under the second Trump administration, which hosted Munir for a White House luncheon in June 2025, hailing Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in counterterrorism. This shift coincides with strained United States-India relations, driven by Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports and criticism of India’s trade policies and Russian oil purchases. Munir’s analogy of Pakistan as a “dump truck full of gravel” versus India’s “shining Mercedes” frames India as economically vulnerable while signalling Pakistan’s readiness for reckless, catastrophic retaliation. India, however, has firmly stated it will not be blackmailed by Pakistan’s nuclear threats, adopting a policy of resolute deterrence akin to Israel’s approach to jihadi terror regimes in the Middle East, though Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal poses a unique challenge. Implications and Ramifications of Munir's Threats Munir’s threats highlight the existential danger posed by Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at 170 warheads in 2025, with projections to reach 200 by 2030, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Unlike Iran or North Korea, Pakistan’s nuclear program strangely and unfortunately faces minimal international scrutiny, despite its history of proliferation and ties to terrorist networks and grave global implications. Asim Munir himself has made it amply clear to the world by openly threatening that he would bring down half the world with his nukes. These dangerous remarks expose vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s nuclear command and control, particularly given the military’s dominance over civilian governance and its complicity with terrorist groups. Delivered on democratic United States soil, the statement challenges Pakistan’s reliability as a United States partner, especially as it leverages its legacy of ties to amplify its belligerence. Strangely and unfortunately, the new champion of global peace United States, under Nobel Peace Prize aspirant President Donald Trump, has not reacted to this callous statement made under his nose. A nuclear escalation could have catastrophic consequences. Studies estimate that a nuclear conflict could kill up to 125 million people and disrupt global food and water security, particularly if the belligerent Pakistani regime targets India’s dams or infrastructure. Munir’s threats also undermine the United States' efforts to promote nuclear non-proliferation, again contradicting President Trump’s reported ambition to secure a Nobel Peace Prize for averting nuclear conflict. Pakistan: A Den of Jihadi Terrorism and State-Sponsored Terror Pakistan’s status as a hub of jihadi terrorism is undeniable. It has harboured groups like the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammed, responsible for attacks such as the 2008 Mumbai bombings (166 deaths), the 2019 Pulwama attack (40 deaths), and the September 11, 2001, World Trade Centre attacks, orchestrated by al-Qaeda under Osama bin Laden, who was found hiding in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in 2011. Terrorists originating from Pakistan have also killed American citizens, including in the 2009 Fort Hood shooting and attacks on United States personnel in Afghanistan, besides many other attacks. The Inter-Services Intelligence agency has faced accusations of providing logistical and financial support to these groups, blurring the line between state and non-state actors. Munir’s defence of the military’s political dominance— “politics is too serious to be left to politicians”—further entrenches this nexus, undermining democratic institutions and enabling state-sponsored terrorism. Pakistan’s status on the Financial Action Task Force watchlist underscores its complicity in terrorism financing. Despite being removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey list in 2022 after four years, Pakistan remains under enhanced monitoring due to deficiencies in combating terrorist financing, particularly linked to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Pakistan’s failure to dismantle terrorist networks is further compounded by its openly irresponsible statements as a nuclear state. Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal: A Dubious and Dangerous Asset Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is uniquely dangerous compared to those of Iran, North Korea, CCP-occupied China or Turkey. Ayatollah Regime’s nuclear ambitions, curtailed by United States and Israeli strikes, remain under intense scrutiny. North Korea’s arsenal, while provocative, is constrained by sanctions and isolation. Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation member hosting United States nuclear weapons, operates under strict oversight. In contrast, Pakistan’s 170 warheads, including tactical nuclear weapons, are controlled by a military with ties to terrorist groups, raising fears of misuse or theft in the hands of dubious actors backed by China and the deep state actors of the United States. Recently, Pakistan unveiled a new land-attack cruise missile, further boosting its precision-strike capabilities amid ongoing tensions. Pakistan’s nuclear program, initiated in the 1970s in response to India’s 1974 nuclear test, was built with covert assistance from the Chinese Communist Party-occupied China, including designs and materials. The program was shaped by Abdul Qadeer Khan’s proliferation network, which supplied technology to rogue regimes in Iran, North Korea, and Libya. Today, Pakistan possesses an estimated 3,200 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, with delivery systems including short-range Nasr missiles and Shaheen-III ballistic missiles capable of reaching 2,750 kilometres. The program’s opacity and the military’s control over nuclear assets, combined with Pakistan’s economic fragility—a gross domestic product of $340 billion and a looming debt crisis in 2025—heighten global concerns. The United States’ Response: A Question of Double Standards The United States’ muted response to Munir’s threats raises concerns of double standards. While the United States and Israel have targeted Ayatollah’s nuclear facilities to curb his ambitions, Pakistan’s arsenal—arguably more dangerous due to its terrorist linkages and dubious acquisition—has escaped similar action. This leniency may stem from legacy strategic interests, including Pakistan’s role in counterterrorism and its proximity to Iran, where the United States seeks leverage amid the Israeli defence actions. President Trump’s warm reception of Munir, including the White House luncheon and praise for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, suggests a shift, possibly driven by energy deals or a desire to counter the Chinese Communist Party-occupied China’s influence as well as possibly to put pressure on rising democratic India to align with the United States on American terms. Recent United States-Pakistan counterterrorism talks indicate a major change, with Washington backing Islamabad's stance on groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army and increasing pressure on India. However, this approach ignores Pakistan’s history of duplicity. During his first term, President Trump accused Pakistan of “befooling” the United States, noting that it received over $33 billion in aid from 2001 to 2018 while harbouring terrorists like Osama bin Laden. The discovery of bin Laden in Abbottabad, near a Pakistani military academy, exposed Pakistan’s complicity in sheltering America’s most wanted terrorist. The United States’ failure to address Pakistan’s nuclear recklessness and state-sponsored terrorism risks repeating past mistakes, emboldening a regime that threatens global stability. China’s Role and Stance The Chinese Communist Party-occupied China has been Pakistan’s closest ally, providing critical support for its nuclear and missile programs since the 1980s. The $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, underscores Beijing’s strategic investment in Pakistan as a counterweight to India and a gateway to the Sea. The Chinese Communist Party-occupied China has repeatedly vetoed United Nations Security Council proposals to designate Pakistani terrorists, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar, as global terrorists. CCP regime’s silence on Munir’s nuclear threats reflects tacit approval, as Pakistan serves as a proxy to check India’s rise. CCP-occupied China is supplying not only arms to this Terrorist Regime but also supplies intelligence, as seen during Operation Sindoor. India’s Response: Confronting the Rogue Jihadi Terror Regime India, with its 1.4 billion population and $4.0 trillion economy, faces the brunt of Pakistan’s belligerence. The Pahalgam attack, coupled with Pakistan’s history of cross-border terrorism, underscores the need for India to bolster its defence capabilities, including its own nuclear arsenal of 160 warheads. India’s nationalist government has adopted a firm stance, declaring it will not succumb to nuclear blackmail while enhancing its second-strike capabilities. Drawing parallels to Israel’s proactive stance against jihadi terror regimes in the Middle East, India is prepared to deal decisively with Pakistan’s rogue jihadi terror regime in South Asia, despite the challenge posed by its nuclear arsenal. Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist infrastructure and reportedly struck near Pakistan’s nuclear sites, demonstrates India’s readiness to confront this threat head-on. India has decried Munir's remarks as "sabre rattling," emphasising the irresponsibility of nuclear threats in South Asia. India would protect its interests at all costs, and the Indian people are united and prepared to sacrifice for the noble cause of protecting their motherland, even if they have to fight single-handedly on multiple fronts, like Israel. The World’s Blind Spot and Historical Lessons The world’s failure to learn from the September 11, 2001, World Trade Centre attacks and Osama bin Laden’s sanctuary in Pakistan is alarming. Munir’s statements would likely horrify India’s founding “secular” leaders, Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, if they were to listen to this reckless rhetoric, their vision of peaceful coexistence twisted into a monstrous jihadi nuclear terror regime across the border. The international community’s inaction, coupled with the Trump administration’s apparent pivot, risks emboldening Pakistan further. The free world, including the United States and Israel, must recognise Pakistan’s threats as a global concern, not just India’s burden. A recent United States report highlighted human rights abuses in Pakistan, noting that Pakistan rarely acts against such violations, further underscoring the instability. Latest Developments Tensions continue to simmer following the Permanent Court of Arbitration's August 8, 2025, ruling on the Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration, which upheld Pakistan's stance by declaring that India must "let flow" the waters of the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) for Pakistan's unrestricted use, with limited exceptions for hydroelectric projects. Pakistan has welcomed the verdict as a victory and pressed for the revival of the Indus Waters Treaty, urging India to resume its functioning. India has rejected the court's jurisdiction over the treaty, maintaining its suspension in response to ongoing terrorism. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has echoed Munir's belligerence, warning that any attempt to block water flows would violate the treaty and elicit a "decisive response" Amid these developments, reports of a brief 2025 India-Pakistan conflict in May, followed by a ceasefire, highlight the fragility of the situation. These events reinforce the urgent need for global intervention to prevent Pakistan's rogue behaviour from spiralling into catastrophe. Conclusion “Field Marshal” Syed Asim Munir’s nuclear threats from United States soil expose Pakistan as a rogue jihadi terror state, where military dominance, state-sponsored terrorism, and a dubiously acquired nuclear arsenal converge. The global community must respond with unified condemnation, stricter oversight of Pakistan’s nuclear program, and sanctions to dismantle its terrorist ecosystem. India, left to confront this threat alone, must prepare for all contingencies, from diplomatic pressure to military deterrence, much like Israel’s approach to jihadi regimes in the Middle East. The world cannot afford to ignore Pakistan’s dangerous trajectory, lest it repeat the catastrophic oversights of the World Trade Centre attacks and Osama bin Laden’s hideout, endangering millions and destabilising the global order.

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