Analysts and politicians observe that Iraq is capitalising on a period of relative calm to assert its influence over the oil-rich autonomous Kurdistan region, which has a history of strained relations with federal authorities. Tensions between Baghdad and Arbil, the northern region's capital, have intensified following several Supreme Court rulings viewed by the Kurds as efforts to diminish the region's autonomy.

Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has recently warned of "conspiracies to undermine and dismantle the Kurdistan region," alleging internal support within Kurdistan itself.

The ongoing pressure primarily targets the KDP, which is engaged in a longstanding rivalry with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Kurds in Iraq faced persecution under Saddam Hussein's Sunni Arab-dominated regime, but their autonomy was formalised in the 2005 constitution following the 2003 US-led invasion. However, reconciling the complex ties between Baghdad and Kurdistan has remained a persistent challenge.

Federal authorities in Baghdad have been preoccupied with various crises, including warfare, the fight against the Islamic State group, and anti-government protests, diverting attention away from alleged mistakes made by Kurdistan.

These purported errors include unauthorized oil deals, financial irregularities, and questionable decisions. A senior official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity, highlighted the necessity to rectify these errors at this juncture.

Despite facing challenges such as corruption and political discord similar to those in Baghdad, the US-backed Kurdistan region has positioned itself as a stable hub of economic growth amid the turmoil in federal Iraq.

Last year, civil servants and lawyers from Sulaimaniyah, a PUK stronghold, filed a lawsuit over unpaid salaries, accusing Baghdad of withholding funds. In February, the Federal Supreme Court directed the federal government to directly pay public sector salaries in Kurdistan and demanded that all revenues be remitted to Baghdad.

The court's order reduced the Kurdish parliament's seats, prompting the KDP to boycott upcoming polls. A dispute over oil exports worsened tensions, resulting in a suspension of exports after international arbitration favoured federal control over Kurdish oil exports via Turkey. Negotiations for Kurdish oil sales through Baghdad have stalled despite a tentative agreement.

Upon assuming power in 2021, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani initially improved relations between Baghdad and Arbil. However, some pro-Iran Shiite Muslim factions supporting Sudani are now determined to weaken Kurdistan's autonomy.

Political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari highlighted Shiite politicians' desire to weaken the region for political reasons, citing recent court decisions as politically driven. Tensions strain ties between Arbil and Baghdad while aiming to diminish the KDP's political influence.

Internal rifts between the KDP and the PUK have long influenced regional politics. PUK chief Bafel Jalal Talabani backed the Supreme Court's decisions, but KDP lawmaker Sabah Sobhi criticized them for undermining Iraq's political system. Sobhi warned that Kurdish faction disagreements could worsen stability and the political landscape.

Image source: Times of India