Iran raised a red flag over the Jam Karan mosque in Qom on Wednesday morning, indicating it is preparing a response to Israel's killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh.

The hoisting of the flag over Jamkaran Mosque, a significant mosque in the city of Qom, is said to symbolise the unjust spilling of blood and serves as a call to avenge a person who has been slain. The flag was previously raised when Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US airstrike in 2020 and after the Kerman cemetery bombings in 2024.

Clearly, the flag is a call to avenge Haniyeh's killing, but it remains uncertain whether it will result in an attack on Israel similar to the one in April or trigger an all-out war. In April, Iran launched hundreds of missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. That attack, which also targeted a few air bases, caused minimal damage and resulted in no casualties.

A day after the apparent Israeli strike that killed Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel announced that Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas' military wing, had been killed in an airstrike in Gaza in July. Israel has not confirmed or denied its involvement in Haniyeh's death. On Tuesday, Israeli forces also killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in a precision missile strike in Beirut, Lebanon.

According to The New York Times, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel in response to Haniyeh's killing.

Khamenei issued this directive during an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli attack on the building in Tehran where he was staying.

Khamenei stated that Israel had created the conditions for "harsh punishment" and that it was Tehran's duty to avenge Ismail Haniyeh's death. The assassination of the Hamas political leader in Iran raises concerns about the Islamic Republic's ability to ensure the safety of its senior officials and allies, as well as Israel's capability to target them effectively.

On Wednesday, the United Nations Security Council members called for increased diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader Middle East conflict.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah suggested that a coordinated attack on Israel might be imminent, following Israel's assassination of one of its top commanders in Beirut less than 24 hours before Haniyeh's killing.

“Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated,” he said in a speech Thursday.

A source close to Hezbollah told AFP that Iranian officials met in Tehran on July 31 with representatives of the so-called “axis of resistance”, a loose alliance of Tehran-backed groups hostile to Israel, to discuss their next steps.

“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” said the source who had been briefed on the meeting, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Analysts told AFP that the retaliation would be measured to avoid a wider conflagration.

The back-to-back assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr could either lead to an "all-out" war in the region or be part of a broader strategy by Israel to escalate tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, potentially leading to a resolution of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, according to retired Marine Colonel Stephen Ganyard, a former Deputy Assistant U.S. Secretary of State, speaking to ABC News.

"There's an old Russian, even Soviet strategic ploy, which is called 'escalate to de-escalate,'" said Ganyard. "So what the Israelis appear to be doing here is ramping things up very quickly, perhaps to reset the discussions with Hamas and Gaza, to have Hezbollah calm down and to put Iran on greater notice that they are in fact going to be a target in the future if their attacks continue, and that their proxies are very vulnerable to Israeli attacks."

In April, Iran's attack on Israel, following an Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, had the potential to escalate into an all-out war. However, Iran's unprecedented retaliation caused minimal damage, with Israel claiming that most of the rockets and missiles were intercepted and no lives were lost. This time, the situation could be different, as a prime target was hit within Iran itself.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that a broader conflict would benefit no party, suggesting that Iran's response may not necessarily lead to an all-out war.

While Iran and Hezbollah are expected to respond, they might adopt methods that allow Israel some leeway to avoid further retaliation, at least for the time being, according to some analysts speaking to The New York Times. Hezbollah has seemed cautious about entering a war that could severely impact Lebanon, while Iran — despite its leadership's commitment to a strong response — may seek to avoid actions that could more directly involve the US in the conflict.

Image source: Economics Times