I had written a column in Opindia analysing the opinion polls a few days before Tamil Nadu & Puducherry went to polls for electing their MP’s. Like the Opinion polls, the exit polls are all over the place with India Today - Axis giving as much as 36 seats to the UPA & NewsX – Neta giving as low as 20.

With two days to go for counting, I stick my neck out and put down seat by seat predictions for all of the 39/40 Lok Sabha seats. LS elections for the Vellore LS seat was cancelled by the  Election Commission after large amounts of cash were seized from the DMK candidate allegedly for distribution in exchange for votes. At a summary level I predict the DMK led UPA to win majority of seats at the back of Strong double anti-incumbency, minority consolidation against NDA and splitting of ADMK votes by the rebel party AMMK. Here is a summary of my predictions for all of the 39 seats.

Now let us look at how this breaks down into the 39 constituencies that went to polls in a single phase on 18^th April, 2018. Tamil Nadu can be divided broadly into 5 different electoral zones viz. Chennai & suburbs, North TN, Kongu region in the west, Cauvery delta region and South  each of which have their own set of issues and caste dynamics.

Chennai & suburbs region

Let’s start with the Chennai region which has long been the DMK fortress before Jaya changed it a bit and wrested some control. In this election, DMK is all set to regain most of its bases in the region.

Central Chennai: This is one of the VIP constituencies where Dayanidhi Maran who was minister in the UPA government in the past is contesting on behalf of DMK and is taking on Sam Paul from the PMK. Despite Sam who is an entrepreneur turned politician running a spirited campaign, DMK should romp home comfortably.

Chennai North: Kalanidhi Veerasamy of the DMK, one amongst many dynasts who are in the fray should comfortably cruise past a relatively low profile DMDK candidate.

Chennai South: One of the very few ultra-urban constituencies and Brahmin dominated constituencies in TN saw a fight between the glamourous Tamiizhachi Thangapandiyan of the DMK and the sitting MP J. Jayavardhan of the ADMK. I had called out 19 of the 39 seats as too close to call and Chennai South is one of them. I will call this in favour of ADMK based on my ground sources.

Thiruvallur: One of the three Chennai suburban seats saw a fight between Dr. P.Venugopal of ADMK who has completed two terms as MP in this constituency and K. Jayakumar of the INC. Given the popularity of Dr. Venugopal and the arithmetic, ADMK should comfortably win this constituency.

Kanchipuram: Kanchipuram a township of temples is one of the most-ancient cities of southern India and traces its history to the 2nd century BCE as an early Chola capital, saw a straight contest between DMK and ADMK and I will give this seat to DMK’s G. Selvam

Sriperumbudur: Vetaran  DMK politician, a right hand man of DMK chief Stalin and ex minister T.R.Baalu should have an easy win over A.Vaithilingam of the PMK in the industrial suburb of Chennai that hosts many of the automotive manufacturers.

North Tamil Nadu:

This region dominated equally by people from the Vanniyar caste & Dalits  is a fortress of Ramdoss of the Paatali Makkal Katchi  (PMK) has been in the news for all the wrong reasons off late including violent caste flare up’s.

Arakonam: This constituency saw a clash between two ex - central minister’s A.K.Moorthy of the PMK & S.Jagathrakshakan of the DMK and I expect DMK to narrowly win this battle.

Aarani: M.K. Vishnuprasad another dynast from the stable of INC is expected to win over Senji V. Ezhumalai comfortably.

Chidambaram: Thirumavalavan the chief of the Viduthalai Siruthaigal Katchi is taking on ADMK’s P.Chandrasekhar in this volatile constituency and despite severe fight, he may romp home.

Dharmapuri: Another VIP constituency Dharmapuri sees Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss ex central minister and heir apparent of the PMK take on S.Senthikumar of the DMK. In his stronghold Dr. Anbumani should be home and dry here.

Krishnagiri: This is another constituency which is seeing dead heat of a battle where in A.Chellakumar from INC is facing K.P.Munusamy of ADMK despite anti-incumbency from both the state and central govt. ADMK should win this narrowly.

Kallakurichi: This is where DMDK’s real mastermind  L.K.Sudish, brother in law of founder Captain Vijayakanth is facing Pon. Goutham Sigamani of the DMK. Despite arithmetic, DMK is expected to win here.

Mayiladuthurai: This should be another seat that DMK should be comfortably winning given the arithmetic and lack of chemistry in the NDA camp.

Tiruvannamalai: Temple town Tiruvannamalai  sees another close contest between ADMK’s Agri Krishnamoorthy  & DMK’s C.N.Annnadurai. Both parties have fought the battle tooth and nail but I expect DMK to prevail.

Villupuram: Another of the PMK stronghold sees PMK’s loyalist S.Vadivel Ravanan taking on writer D.Ravikumar from VCK contesting using the DMK’s symbol. Thanks to the symbol and field work of DMK, D.Ravikumar must be home.

Cauvery Delta Region:

This region as the name suggests the towns who live of the Cauvery river and hosts Tanjore which is referred to as the Rice bowl of Tamil Nadu has always been politically a volatile region given their dependency on rains and water release from Karnataka.

Cuddalore: This is a border district and has significant Vanniar population and sees a contest between DMK and PMK. The DMK should win narrowly here.

Nagapattinam: The coastal town of Nagapattinam which was worst affected by the Gaja cyclone and the ruling parties faced intense media criticism for its slow response, sees one of the two CPI candidates M.Selvaraj taking on ADMK’s M.Saravanan. The communists who are dying elsewhere will be seeing one of their rare victories here.

Puducherry: The Congress party has fielded two time chief minister and veteran politician V.Vaithilingam in the only parliamentary constituency in the Union territory constituency and coastal town of Puducherry. Taking him on is Dr. Narayanasamy Kesavan of the All India NR Congress an NDA ally. This must be another Congress win from the south based on my analysis

Perambalur: This constituency sees maths teacher turned millionaire education baron & chief of SRM group of educational institutions, T.R.Paarivendhar of the  Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (Indian Democratic Party) a UPA ally take on Sivapathy of ADMK. Ant incumbency and DMK’s field work my help this millionaire into a legislature barring any last minute surprise.

Tanjore: Late DMK supremo Karunanidhi’s home base, sees its candidate S.S.Palanimanickam take on N.R.Nadarajan of the Tamil Manila Congress, an NDA ally. DMK should be able to win this comfortably despite the hard work put in by TMC chief and son ex minister G.K.Vasan.

Tiruchirappalli: Thirunavaukarasar who was the TNCC chief not so long ago and one who has the distinction of having hopped to all the parties in TN is taking on a lightweight opposition candidate from V.Illangovan of the DMDK. Trichy as its also referred to was once a Congress bastion before becoming DMK stronghold should be an easy win for Thirunavukarasar.

Kongu Region:

The most scenic part of TN bordering Kerala and Western Ghats is the home base of the current CM Edapadi Palanisamy and has long been a ADMK bastion. In the last few years, the CM has thrown all his weight to ensure NDA maximises its seats here.

Coimbatore: The Manchester of south, one of the very few seats where BJP has considerable support base south of Karnataka sees a battle royal between BJP’s C.P.Radhakrishnan and P.R.Natarajan of the CPI(M). A very tough battle which I expect BJP to pull it off.

Erode: A strong hold of ADMK & EPS, ADMK’s Manimaran taking on A.Ganeshamurthi of MDMK.A seat which ADMK won by a huge margin in the last few elections sees a tough battle due to anti-incumbency and opposition unity. I expect it to be a narrow win for MDMK.

Karur: Another toughly contested seat in the Kongu region saw the serving deputy speaker of Lok Sabha Thambidurai take on Jothimani, one of the blue eyed girls of Rahul Gandhi. I expect ADMK to pull it off.

Nammakal: This constituency is yet another strong hold of ADMK whose candidate P.Kaliappan taking on Chinnaraj of KMDK, a sub-regional party. I expect ADMK to win this narrowly.

Nilgiris: This is another VIP constituency where the 2G fame A.Raja is contesting and expected to win.

Pollachi: Pollachi was in news for all the wrong reasons weeks before it went to polls but it has a solid candidate from ADMK in C.Mahendran who should win reasonably comfortably.

Salem: A strong hold of ADMK and home base of Edapadi Palanisamy should see his party win comfortably.

Tirupur: Another strong hold of ADMK and the textile centre of TN should also return its sitting MP S.M. Anandan despite tough fight from K. Subbarayan of the CPI

South Tamil Nadu:

Traditionally a strong hold of ADMK has seen it losing its grip due to the emergence of AMMK led by TTV Dhinakaran. Though he isn’t expected to win any seats, Political pundits are keenly watching who and how much does Dhinakaran damage in these elections and more so in this region.

Dindigul: This should be an easy win for DMK over its light weight opposition from PMK.

Kanyakumari: Another VIP constituency from where BJP has fielded its sitting minister and the very popular Pon.Radhakrishnan. Taking him on is the proprietor of Vasanth & Co, Vasanthkumar from INC who lost by over a lakh votes to Pon. R in the 2014 elections. Consolidation of minority community and anti-incumbency has made this the toughest battle in TN this elections. I wish I can say that Pon.R will scrape through but my analysis tells me that he will lose narrowly.

Madurai: The home base of M.K.Azhagiri should give CPI(M) its only seat in TN thanks to splitting of votes by AMMK candidate and the clean image of the CPI(M) candidate M. Venkatesan.

Ramanathapuram: Probably the most polarized election in TN this time around saw erstwhile ADMK leader  Nainar Nagendran contesting in BJP’s ticket against Navaskani of the Indian Union Muslim Leader. Nainar is expected to scrape through this elections.

Sivaganga: One of those VIP constituencies which I wish I can call in favour of BJP but will give it to INC. The reason being the BJP candidate is one of my favourite Tamil BJP leaders H.Raja and the INC candidate is the infamous Karthi Chidambaram.

Thenkasi: This is another of the constituency where smaller NDA ally Puthiya Thamizhagam chief K.Krishnanswamy is taking on Dhanush M Kumar from DMK. Caste equations, AMMK splitting votes and a host of other local issues is expected to contribute to DMK winning this seat.

Toothukudi: Another of the VIP constituency from where the dynasts Kanimozhi daughter of Karunanithi took on Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan daughter of ex Congress chief Kumari Anandan and now the TNNBJP chief. Kanimozhi should wrest this seat comfortably.

Theni: Theni was a high profile seat as it saw the son on O.Pannerselvam, the deputy CM take on EVKS Elangovan of the INC. factionlism, AMMK  and a host of other local issues should see INC win this seat.

Tirunelveli: This should be a comfortable win for DMK’s Gnanathiraviam over ADMK’s Paul Manoj Pandian.

Virudhunagar: local strong man Manick Tagore of the INC with little help from his allies and AMMK must romp home here beating the DMDK rival Azhagarsamy.

In total this is how I expect the final tally to look like. As you would expect I haven’t done any exit poll survey but have arrived at these predictions based on my analysis of vote share’s in the last few elections, candidate selections, local politics and observing media reports.