Dragon vs The Diamond, Can the Indo-Pacific Quad contain South China Sea Dispute? India‘s role might be bigger than expected
- In Foreign Policy
- 11:11 AM, Jan 16, 2018
- Sanghamitra Purohit
Seas have been the motivators and synergists of civilizations. Turn the pages of history and we see any nation or civilization that had dominated over its neighbours, prospered and left a lasting legacy was almost always a maritime power. Seas have facilitated trade, international relations and geopolitical powerplay since centuries. Modern times have only asserted this truth even further.
The south China Sea is a roughly 1,400,000 square mile marginal sea that extends from the straits of Karimata and Malacca to the strait of Taiwan. Eight major countries have territorial borders in the area namely China, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam. Its location and relative ease of navigability gives it immense strategic and economic potential. The geopolitical ramifications of events and disputes, thus, are also huge.
Why is it important
The South China Sea (SCS) controls a large chunk of the world trade. An estimate says over 5 trillion dollars a year of global trade happens through the SCS. The strait of Malacca is the world's most important trade route and understandably so. The narrow 890 km long strait between Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore is the shortest route between Africa and the Gulf to the vast markets of Asia Pacific region. The fact that it sees the passage of oil 19 times that of the Panama Canal and 4 times that of the Suez Canal is just another reminder of its geopolitical impact. According to an estimate of the UN conference of Trade and Development (UNCTAD), about half of the world's total seaborne trade passes through the strait of Malacca.
This immense treasure of trade, wealth and power is now being plundered unabashedly by China. For years China has been asserting its clout over the SCS. For about eight years now, assertion and diplomatic muscle flexing became the things of the past when China has replaced them with blatant domination and bullying.
The SCS is rich with natural resources. Its fossil fuel reserves are estimated to have 11 billion barrels of oil, 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Add to it the SCS status of being the world's most abundant and diverse fisheries hub. It accounts for 10 % of the entire world's fisheries. Combining it's shipping trade routes, fossil fuel reserves and fisheries alone, it provides livelihoods for about a billion people. The regions surrounding the SCS are all densely populated and one way or the other, they all depend on the SCS for their very sustenance.
The dragon claw
China claims the entire SCS as its territory. They say they have a historical claim over it. The other countries Brunei , Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims . But there is a problem. The territorial disputes of these countries is pivoting on the United Nations Convention on The Laws Of The Sea (UNCLOS) ,1982. According to the UNCLOS laws, a country has territorial claim on the sea surrounding it up to 200 Nautical Miles. The area is called the respective country's EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone ) . UN Maritime Laws give the respective countries the authority to explore and exploit the natural resources inside its own EEZ. Beyond the 200 NM, the area is called International waters and is shared by all countries equally. Disputes over the EEZ and International waters come under scrutiny of UN Maritime Laws.
Following the World War 2, when Japan lost its Maritime and economic dominion over the SCS, China seized the opportunity . Gradually over the years china expanded its hold, it started low. Chasing off fishermen, sending a few boats, stationing a few men on an uninhabited remote island, frequency of naval patrol boats and such. The problem was brought to international attention when china started building islands and claiming territories.
Pic : the 9 dash line of china, china claims the entire U shaped region within the 9 dash line as its territory
The resistance
In 2013, the Philippines went to the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, where international disputes are settled. China not only refused to participate, but also chose to completely ignore its verdict in 2016, which ruled in favour of the Philippines in almost all its claim
The verdict stated that China had lost claim to any historical rights over the SCS as they have ratified the UN convention in 1996. China couldn't care less. They even refused to acknowledge the verdict.
Over the years, the Chinese has been manoeuvring complete dominion over the SCS, they have chased out fishermen , paid Chinese fishermen to settle on the uninhabited Sprately Islands , and bringing in all their might to exhaust the supply to the extent that the fishing stock have been severely depleted over the years , affecting livelihoods of millions of people .
Artificial islands
The Sprately Islands is a cluster of remote, uninhabited islands more than 500 miles south of China's southernmost point on the island of Hainan. In around early 2014, there was a disturbing and alarming change noticed the satellite images from the area. A few days of activities, then a new island would be visible. China has moved its ships to pump sand and rock into the reefs. Relentless construction work would follow and then the natural reefs would then be converted into an full-fledged island, complete with sea ports, airbases, buildings and stationed troops. The speed and intensity of the construction was such that often as much as 3.5 acres of land was created per day!
The purpose was not lost on anyone. China was reclaiming territory. By converting reefs into artificial islands, they were claiming territories on it and also on the 200 NM area surrounding the island. The new islands were then manned by naval vessels, destroyers and surveillance ships along with fishing boats. 7 previous reefs have thus been claimed as Chinese territory.
Cuarteron Reef
Subi Reef
Mischief Reef
Johnson Reef
Hughes Reef
Gover Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Ravaging ecosystems
Destroying a reef plays absolute havoc on the ecosystem of the area. Reefs sustain biodiversity for aquatic animals. Destroying reefs unravels the ecosystem, fish lose their habitat, pelagic fish lose food and fish larvae gail to survive. The Chinese construction works, added with giant clam poaching, overfishing and naval activities pose a risk of entirely collapsing the biodiversity of the SCS. Already some regions have less than one tenth of the stocks than a couple of decades ago.
Security threat
China has been threatening to make the skies over SCS an AIZ (Air Identification Zone). Which will mean any aircraft belonging to any country would have to seek Chinese permission for flying over the area. The US has not taken the threat kindly. They have promised to send their aircraft carriers to SCS if ever China declares it as AIZ. A US destroyer ventured out up to within 12 Nautical Miles of Subi Island, testing to see if China can dare to attack. The way things are going now, the equation is being balanced by very delicate stakes. At any moment, an international crisis can intensify. Given the strategic and economic importance of the SCS and the larger Indo -pacific region, it will engulf most nations within no time. The new islands also mean china can deploy combat aircrafts and missile launchers on them at will, and without fear of counter manoeuvre.
The expansionism and power scuffle has the world worried. Like the Philippines dragging China to The Hague, other nations have also been involved in territorial frictions, minor incidents and much diplomatic entanglements. Sadly, nothing quite seems to be working so far.
The US has its own reasons to be worried. As the leading global power, it simply cannot allow china to have monopoly over SCS, not only does it have vast trade interests in oil to protect, it also has to reaffirm its own reputation. President Donald Trump's ex chief strategist Steve Bannon, had quoted in,"We are going to war over the South China Sea ". He has given a time frame too. Within five to ten years.
Counter manuevers
The US has been carrying out FONOPs (Freedom of Navigation Operations) since 2015. It involves incidents like one stated above, where US Naval ships sail too close to the artificial islands. They have been branded provocative by China and the US has been repeatedly asked to abandon the practice and stay out of attempts that harm "China's sovereignty and security”.
The IndoPacific Quadrilateral
Japan has a different approach. It too, like the US has much to lose in the SCS and has been trying it's level best to shift the power axis in the larger Indo-Pacific region. It was Japan's then President Shinzo Abe who made a speech in India's parliament in August 2007, citing "Confluence of the two seas " by Dara Shikoh and called upon Indian Lawmakers to come forward and partner with Japan for the prevailing peace, freedom and upholding of basic human rights in the Indo-Pacific region . But conditions were not right for any strategic steps. The then UPA govt could not muster the courage to stand up to China, even Australia remained hesitant. US president Barack Obama tried to bring together Asian countries tries involved, but he too could not do much.
It was much later that the scenario began to show positive changes. Shinzo Abe came back to power for the second time in 2012, then for a third time in 2014. 2014 saw a seismic shift in India's political landscape. After a long time a decisive, nationalistic and visionary leader became India's prime minister with overwhelming majority. Narendra Modi. Shinzo Abe must have smiled on 26th May 2014. The powerplay in Asia was going to change forever. Narendra Modi changed India's foreign policy image of a reluctant watcher to assertive, sentient game changer. The wheels were set in motion.
On November 11, 2017 Japan, India , Australia and the US made possible the abrupt comeback of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue . The representatives and leaders of the gour nations met in the sidelines of the 31 st ASEAN and East Asian Summit and issued statements highliting common agreement on a "Free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo -Pacific region and challenges of terrorism. Though India refrained tactfully from commenting directly on the SCS issue, the remaining three countries made clear the need for "Coordinating in the Maritime Security on the IndoPacific ". In the statements and events that followed the nations have only reaffirmed their view of India being the key to balance the efforts on the IndoPacific .
The Malabar exercise and Revamped Maritime Doctrine
Under Narendra Modi's leadership India has not been reluctant to take charge and projecting it's potential as a global game changer. In 2015, india revamped its Maritime Doctrine.
"Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy ". The Indian Navy not only made port calls in almost all ASEAN countries , it also has been conducting frequent naval drills and started maritime capacity building efforts in Vietnam and Myanmar .
The most notable and strategic of these exercises is the Malabar exercise. Strategic because it involves two countries of the Quadrilateral. Japan and US. In July 2017, it captured global attention as the Indian Aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya, the USS flat top Nimitz and Japan's brand new JS Izumo displayed their might and potential. China was not happy at all. Though India did not include Australia in the Malabar exercise, Naval coordination with Australia is on constant rise. Bilateral exercises have taken place and industrial cooperation for hydrocarbon exploration and mining projects are underway.
Image courtesy: Wikipedia, the Malabar exercise
The US and Japan both, in repeated statements, have cited India as the key player in the Indo-Pacific. The US after Trump came to power has consciously replaced Asia Pacific by Indo-Pacific and this subtle change is not merely symbolic. The powers that be are extending hands. The US ambassador to India Kenneth Jester has specifically stated that the US sees India as the leading power in the Indo-Pacific.
Narendra Modi has all the qualities of a global leader. He has welcomed the invitations at the big table, but not at the cost of India's own interests. He has been playing his cards carefully and most of all tactfully. India has not made any chest thumping actions or statements regarding the SCS crisis, but the government has been taking strategic steps to assert India's power .
Malabar exercise was an example. Doklam standoff was a bigger example. The revamp of Maritime Strategy was a brilliant manoeuvre. Now India has put fresh efforts in its relationships with the ASEAN countries. In the Manila Summit PM Modi did what no other PM has even thought of. He invited the leaders of 10 ASEAN nations to honour the Republic day parade on 26 January 2018.
The great summit at Republic day 2018
This Republic day will see ;
State counsellor Aung San su Ki of Myanmar
PM Mohammad Nijib Razak of Malaysia
PM Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore
President Joko Widodo of Indonesia
PM Hun Sen of Cambodia
Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei
PM Nguy n Xu Ph C of Vietnam
PM Thongloun Sisoulith of Laos
And Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte with PM Prayuth Chan ocha
as honoured guests at the Red Fort. While having a nation's premier as guest on Republic day parade has been a long traditional event. This year it will be much different. All ASEAN nations at India's table will send a significant message out. India has changed. Narendra Modi has is shifting stakes and changing equations of global power. The world better watch out.
India has been making its commitment to global peace and abolition of terrorism clear time and again. As the sleeping giant of Asia rises under Narendra Modi's able leadership, it is up to the global powers to take notice and decide how they are willing to deal , as friends or as adversaries, china included .
References
https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf
“Asia’s fading bounty “ National Geographic Mgazine , vol 4, issue 8 , March 2017
https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/how-will-the-quad-impact-indias-maritime-security-policy/
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